000
AXNT20 KNHC 121736
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N56W TO 2N58W MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE 
COINCIDES WITH A DEEP MOISTURE MAXIMUM SEEN IN THE TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 52W-57W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 8N13W 6N23W 4N32W 1N40W TO THE NE COAST OF 
BRAZIL NEAR 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 10W-19W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
3N-8N BETWEEN 21W-28W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N 
BETWEEN 33W-38W AND S OF 1N BETWEEN 41W-50W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1015 MB STATIONARY SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 
27N86W. FAIR WEATHER AND A FEW HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS THE 
REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS OF 5-10 KT MOVING ANTI-CYCLONICALLY AROUND 
THE HIGH INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE GULF. 
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGING ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF ARE PRODUCING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE 
REGION SUPPORTING THE FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT THIS PATTERN TO CONTINUE 
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 18N80W TO 12N81W. 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SUPPORTING 
SUBSIDENCE AND FAIR WEATHER OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER E CUBA AND JAMAICA 
EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED N OF THE BAHAMAS. ANOTHER 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN.  UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND THIS RIDGE IS SUPPORTING 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN 
ESPECIALLY E OF JAMAICA AND OVER W HISPANIOLA FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 
70W-77W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN ON 
SAT. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM 29N67W TO 25N72W. 
SURFACE CONFLUENCE NEAR THE TROUGH ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE 
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 25N75W AND AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH EXTENDING S INTO THE CARIBBEAN ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 64W-75W INCLUDING 
PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER 
RIDGE OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 
25N-32N BETWEEN 54W-60W. BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED BY A 
1025 MB HIGH NEAR 30N46W BRINGING FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE 
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE FAR W TROPICAL 
ATLC E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...SEE ABOVE.

$$
WALTON