000 AXNT20 KNHC 121030 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH WWWW UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N53W TO 3N56W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS IN AN UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE BUT THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 215 NM E AND 100 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N10W 6N17W 4N29W 1N43W 1N52W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 125 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 14W-17W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 9W-14W INCLUDING THE COAST OF LIBERIA AND SIERRA LEONE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SW AFRICA BETWEEN 2W-5W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 20W-27W AND S OF THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER NE BRAZIL BETWEEN 40W-48W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 32W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1015 MB HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 28N87W KEEPING WINDS LIGHT ACROSS THE GULF. THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING WITH HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE NW GULF. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO DOMINATING THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE GULF. LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...SO MAINLY FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST TO PERSIST. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 19N80W TO NEAR 11N81W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CUBA OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 13N W OF 76W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN DRAWING UPPER LEVEL MOSITURE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 14N ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND E CUBA BETWEEN 70W-77W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 13N BETWEEN 68W-78W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN ON SAT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE N OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM 32N69W TO 29N72W ROTATING AROUND A SURFACE RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE ATLC. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR W ATLC ACROSS CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 73W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 175 NM OF LINE FROM 28N65W TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES NEAR 20N73W WITH A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF THE S TIP OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 29N39W GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING. $$ WALLACE 000 AXNT20 KNHC 121030 RRA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N53W TO 3N56W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS IN AN UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE BUT THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 215 NM E AND 100 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N10W 6N17W 4N29W 1N43W 1N52W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 125 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 14W-17W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 9W-14W INCLUDING THE COAST OF LIBERIA AND SIERRA LEONE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SW AFRICA BETWEEN 2W-5W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 20W-27W AND S OF THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER NE BRAZIL BETWEEN 40W-48W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 32W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1015 MB HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 28N87W KEEPING WINDS LIGHT ACROSS THE GULF. THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING WITH HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE NW GULF. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO DOMINATING THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE GULF. LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...SO MAINLY FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST TO PERSIST. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 19N80W TO NEAR 11N81W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CUBA OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 13N W OF 76W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN DRAWING UPPER LEVEL MOSITURE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 14N ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND E CUBA BETWEEN 70W-77W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 13N BETWEEN 68W-78W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN ON SAT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE N OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM 32N69W TO 29N72W ROTATING AROUND A SURFACE RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE ATLC. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR W ATLC ACROSS CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 73W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 175 NM OF LINE FROM 28N65W TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES NEAR 20N73W WITH A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF THE S TIP OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 29N39W GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING. $$ WALLACE