000
AXNT20 KNHC 102345
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE 
COINCIDES WITH A DEEP MOISTURE MAXIMUM IN THE SSMI/AMSRE DERIVED 
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A QUIKSCAT PASS ALSO SHOWS 
CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL TURNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF 
THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 
84W S OF 20N MOVING W AROUND 15 KT. THE SSMI/AMSRE DERIVED TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AGAIN SHOWS A WELL DEFINED SPIKE IN 
MOISTURE THAT EXTENDS N OF 20N. MOST DEEP CONVECTION IS OVER COSTA 
RICA AND PANAMA S OF 10N. 

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 4N30W 4N40W 6N47W AND INTO 
FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 5N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 11W-14W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 18W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER 
AT 27N89W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. 
DIURNAL SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER W FLORIDA WITHIN 15 NM 
RADIUS OF 27N82W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER 
THE ENTIRE GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE 
NW GULF W OF 92W AND N OF 24N WHERE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED. 
EXPECT CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. 
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. A 1009 MB LOW IS 
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N79W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS  
FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 76W-80W...AND FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 74W-78W. 
ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE N 
COASTS OF HISPANIOLA...AND CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA HAS 
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 68W. EXPECT CONTINUED 
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE FAR W ATLANTIC FROM 32N76W TO 26N79W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO E OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 23N-27N 
BETWEEN 66W-71W. A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N26W 
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THE HIGH TO THE 
W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS 
OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 24N78W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE 
CENTER IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION E OF THE BAHAMAS. AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE IS BETWEEN 50W-70W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER 
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 24N42W. A THIRD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS S OF 
THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 24N17W. IN THE TROPICS...AN UPPER LEVEL 
HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 11N24W. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER  
N FLORIDA AND THE W ATLANTIC W OF 78W...AND FURTHER E OVER THE W 
ATLANTIC BETWEEN 60W-70W...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.   

$$
FORMOSA