000 AXNT20 KNHC 101659 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE ATLC EXTENDING FROM 8N42W TO 2N46W MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP MOISTURE MAXIMUM SEEN IN THE MIMIC TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. A QUIKSCAT PASS AROUND 10/0900 UTC SHOWED A CYCLONIC WIND SHIFT NEAR 42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 41W-45W AND S OF 2N BETWEEN 40W-45W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 20N ALONG 81W MOVING W AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 75W-80W AND SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 75W-78W WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. ALL OF THIS CONVECTION IS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY AND A SURFACE WIND SHIFT SEEN IN AVAILABLE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 7N17W 5N22W 5N34W 5N42W AND INTO FAR NE BRAZIL NEAR 5N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 17W-29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL N TO NE FLOW AND STRONG RIDGING OVER MEXICO AND THE SE UNITED STATES IS PRODUCING SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO BRINGING FAIR WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE BASIN. CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS PUSHING INTO THE N PORTION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CRESTING THE RIDGE OVER MEXICO. A 1016 MB STATIONARY HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N87W. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING ANTI-CYCLONIC WINDS OF 5-10 KT AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH...THOUGH SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE SRN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES AND MEXICO IS SUPPORTING SE TO S 15-20 KT WINDS ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE GULF. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE W CARIBBEAN AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OFF THE NE COAST OF COLUMBIA WHERE STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NRN S AMERICA IS SUPPORTING E TO SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. E TO SE TRADE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE PRESENT S OF 16N BETWEEN 65W-75W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE FAR W ATLC EXTENDS NE FROM SE FLORIDA NEAR 23N82W TO 32N76W EXTENDING NE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 28N BETWEEN 76W-80W. THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT DIPS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 29N51W EXTENDING NE TO 32N44W AND OUT OF THE AREA. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED TO A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 29N31W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH...RIDGE...TROUGH...RIDGE PATTERN IS PRESENT. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND MOIST SWLY FLOW TO THE E SIDE OF EACH TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 67W-72W AND FROM 12N-22N BETWEEN 35W-44W. $$ WALTON/COHEN