000 AXNT20 KNHC 091714 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON JUN 09 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC S OF 10N ALONG 34W MOVING W 10-15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD CURVATURE OR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 20N ALONG 74W MOVING W 10-15 KT. SIMILAR TO THE CENTRAL ATLC WAVE...THERE IS NO DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY AND A WEAK SURFACE WIND SHIFT FROM AVAILABLE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 6N21W 6N32W 4N43W AND INTO THE NE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 11W-16W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM S OF 7N BETWEEN 37W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL NW-N FLOW AND STRONG RIDGING OVER MEXICO IS PRODUCING SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO BRINGING FAIR WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE BASIN. CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS PUSHING INTO THE NW PORTION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CRESTING THE RIDGE OVER MEXICO. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING SE WINDS OF AROUND 10 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF...THOUGH SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE SRN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES AND MEXICO IS SUPPORTING SE TO S 15-20 KT WINDS ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE GULF. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE W CARIBBEAN AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ESPECIALLY OFF THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NRN S AMERICA IS SUPPORTING E TO SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE FAR W ATLC EXTENDS NE FROM SE FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W TO 32N79W TO A SURFACE LOW OUTSIDE THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 33N78W. THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 28N W OF 76W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS. ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ANCHORED ON A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 29N65W AND A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 28N27W. ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NEAR 23N48W AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS S OF 20N E OF 46W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH NEAR 10N23W. THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 20N ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC. $$ WALTON/SANDOVAL