000 AXNT20 KNHC 090001 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON JUN 08 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 13N27W TO 4N30W MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM BASED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN INVERTED-V CLOUD SIGNATURE IS PRESENT IN THE LOWEST LEVELS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 25W-32W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN S OF 18N TILTED ALONG 18N67W TO 10N70W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION...HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF 15N INCLUDING PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 6N27W 5N32W 3N36W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1N50W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND ACROSS INTERIOR W AFRICA FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 8W-14W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 37W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW AND RIDGING OVER MEXICO IS PRODUCING SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO BRINGING FAIR WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE BASIN. CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF N OF 27N. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CRESTING THE RIDGE OVER MEXICO. ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE BEING GENERATED ON SEA-BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND OVERALL TROUGHING IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING E TO SE WINDS OF AROUND 10 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF...THOUGH SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE SRN U.S. PLAINS AND MEXICO IS SUPPORTING SE TO S 15 KT WINDS ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE GULF. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK AS THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED IN THE NE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM THE COASTS OF PANAMA TO NICARAGUA CONTINUING NE TO ERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND WRN HISPANIOLA. THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS LARGELY FORCED BY THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS ELY TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT CONTINUE FEEDING SURFACE FLOW WESTWARD. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AND PROVIDE CONTINUED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE GREATER ANTILLES NEWD OVER THE BAHAMAS INTO THE W ATLC WATERS. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN AND YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NRN SOUTH AMERICA IS SUPPORTING ELY TRADE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 20N W OF 69W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...ERN CUBA AND ADJACENT NEARBY COASTAL WATERS OF FLORIDA. ALSO...SEA-BREEZE CONVERGENCE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA AND WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FLORIDA W ATLC COAST. ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 17N-24N BETWEEN 43W-53W...WHERE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY IS PRESENT NEAR AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N52W. ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ANCHORED ON A PAIR OF 1021 MB SURFACE HIGHS CENTERED NEAR 28N57W AND 28N33W. ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS S OF 18N E OF 45W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH NEAR 10N26W. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ AND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 28W/29W. $$ HUFFMAN