000 AXNT20 KNHC 081742 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON JUN 08 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A NEW TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE 08/1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS TILTING FROM 14N25W TO 3N29W MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM BASED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD FIELD. THE CIMSS WAVETRAK PRODUCT SHOWS A MAXIMUM IN LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION ALONG THIS WAVE. TIME HEIGHT ANALYSIS FROM DAKAR INDICATES THAT THE WAVE MOVED W PAST 17.5W OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A WIND SHIFT FROM NE TO SE UPON THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 25W-30W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN S OF 19N ALONG 67W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS PUERTO RICO INDICATE CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THIS WAVE. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION...HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS INCLUDING PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 7N26W 6N30W 3N42W AND INTO THE NE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS APPROACHING THE AFRICAN COAST FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 5W-14W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 10W-23W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 35W-40W AND S OF 5N BETWEEN 40W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW AND RIDGING OVER MEXICO IS PRODUCING SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO BRINGING FAIR WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE BASIN. CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS PUSHING INTO THE NW PORTION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CRESTING THE RIDGE OVER MEXICO. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING E TO SE WINDS OF AROUND 10 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF...THOUGH SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE SRN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES AND MEXICO IS SUPPORTING SE TO S 15-20 KT WINDS ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE GULF. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE W CARIBBEAN AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM THE COASTS OF PANAMA TO NICARAGUA CONTINUING NE TO ERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND WRN HISPANIOLA. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 12N77W TO 14N80W. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND JAMAICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NRN S AMERICA IS SUPPORTING E TRADE WINDS OF 25-30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLUMBIA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 21N W OF 72W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT NEARBY COASTAL WATERS OF FLORIDA. ADDITIONALLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 46W-53W...WHERE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY IS PRESENT NEAR AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 21N53W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO ARE FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 60W-64W ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 25N57W TO 21N63W. ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ANCHORED ON A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 28N55W AND A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 28N33W. ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS S OF 15N E OF 50W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH NEAR 9N25W. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. $$ WALTON/COHEN