000
AXNT20 KNHC 081050
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUN 08 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W/67W AT 08/0600 UTC TO THE SOUTH
OF 20N...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 63W AND 65W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM AFRICA NEAR 11N13W TO 8N20W 6N30W 3N40W...INTO NORTHEASTERN 
BRAZIL NEAR 1N55W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N12W 
6N23W 6N31W 4N40W 2N52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 70W...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N76W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTER...TO THE FLORIDA KEYS...TO WESTERN CUBA...TO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS 
COVER THE FLORIDA KEYS...THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 72W AND 79W. THE SURFACE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK AT THIS TIME.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM
11N TO 16N BETWEEN 79W AND 82W. THIS COMPARATIVELY BIGGER MASS
OF PRECIPITATION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MOVING TOWARD NICARAGUA
AS I HAD ANTICIPATED THAT IT MAY BE DOING SIX HOURS AGO.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE AT THE COAST FROM COSTA RICA NEAR 9N81W
TO A POINT OFFSHORE OF EASTERN HONDURAS NEAR 16N84W.
IT STILL IS POSSIBLE THAT EASILY PROBABLY SOME LARGE AMOUNTS
OF RAIN MAY BE RECORDED IN PARTS OF NICARAGUA AND POSSIBLY
EVEN IN HONDURAS IF THIS AREA OF RAIN MAINTAINS ITSELF AND 
REACHES LAND. THIS PRECIPITATION IS IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENT FLOW...IN BETWEEN THE TROUGH THAT HAS PERSISTED IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA AND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL 
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT MOVES FROM HISPANIOLA TO SAINT 
LUCIA ALSO IS BEING WRAPPED INTO THE LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW 
THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 24N56W CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AREA BOUNDED
BY HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND CUBA.
 
THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N
TO THE WEST OF 70W IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH
AND THE SURFACE TROUGH. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N56W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ON WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 48W
AND 66W. MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 16N TO 26N BETWEEN 50W AND
63W.

$$
MT