000 AXNT20 KNHC 072347 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN JUN 07 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS MOVING BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE AND THUS AN AREA OF DRIER AIR ALOFT IS LEAVING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS CLEARLY VISIBLE. CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF 13N AND SIMILAR ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN S OF 13N E OF 64W INCLUDING THE SRN WINDWARD ISLANDS...TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 5N28W 2N42W AND INLAND OVER NE BRAZIL NEAR 1N50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 TO 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 14W-30W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN S OF 7N BETWEEN 30W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS ACROSS THE E GULF...FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FAR W ATLC AND EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 30N79W. THE BASE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH DIPS S ACROSS WRN CUBA AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER SE GEORGIA WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ACROSS NRN FLORIDA FROM JACKSONVILLE WWD TO NEAR PENSACOLA. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS THE E GULF E OF 84W AND OVER FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC WATERS. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO LOCATED ACROSS THE SE GULF E OF A LINE FROM 27N84W TO THE WRN YUCATAN PENINSULA. ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO IS PROVIDING NLY FLOW ALOFT AND DRY AIR OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THUS CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO DIPS S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AND AXIS ALONG 70W DOMINATING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS PROVIDING MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT E OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE FROM 21N77W OVER ERN CUBA TO 13N84W NEAR THE CENTRAL COAST OF NICARAGUA. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN 73W-79W. ONLY OTHER FEATURE AT THE SURFACE TO NOTE IS THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 64W. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EXTENDING INTO THE W ATLC W OF 72W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO E OF BERMUDA AND IS PROVIDING THE W ATLC. BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT EXISTS TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 72W-81W...INCLUDING MUCH OF ERN CUBA...THE BAHAMAS...AND THE NEARBY COASTAL WATERS ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST. A BROAD UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 23N56W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 25N57W TO 21N60W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 19N-27N BETWEEN 48W-57W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE IS PRESENT ANCHORED BY TWO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS...A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 30N39W AND A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 30N56W. FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES MOST OF THE ATLC WATERS E OF 66W EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH DESCRIBED ABOVE. $$ HUFFMAN