000 AXNT20 KNHC 071729 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN JUN 07 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... THE TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 52W IS NOW COMPLETELY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE...THUS DROPPED FROM THE SURFACE ANALYSIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS MOVING BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE AND THUS AN AREA OF DRIER AIR LEAVING LOW CLOUDS CLEARLY VISIBLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N13W 6N24W 2N40W INLAND OVER NE BRAZIL NEAR 2N52W. ITCZ IS VERY ACTIVE BUT NOT WITH ANYTHING SEVERE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 3N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA E OF 3W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN...FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 10W-21W...S OF 2N ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 34W-42W...AND FROM 1N-4N W OF 47W TO INLAND OVER NE BRAZIL. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 21W 39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE E GULF FROM AN UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE COAST OF JACKSONVILLE WITH THE BASE DIPPING S INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA BORDER ALONG THE COAST WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR TALLAHASSEE THEN ALONG 29N88W TO THE NW GULF NEAR 28N94W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SE GULF SE OF A LINE FROM TAMPA FLORIDA TO THE NE TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 81W-83.5W INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL US IS PROVIDING DRY AIR OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE E GULF DIPS S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THIS SCENARIO IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO GENERATE AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150/175 NM OF LINE FROM E CUBA NEAR GULF OF GUACANAYABO TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL NICARAGUA AND S OF 12N BETWEEN 75W-82W WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ENHANCED BY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF ELY TRADE WINDS AND THE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. AT THIS TIME THERE IS NO SURFACE FEATURE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF THIS AREA COULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE E GULF EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING N OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF 78W N OF 27N AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 25N73W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO OVER CUBA NEAR CAMAGUEY. A BROAD UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 24N55W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 25N52W TO 20N61W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 55W-59W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE IS PRESENT ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 30N55W AND A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 31N35W. FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES MOST OF THE ATLC WATERS E OF 70W EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH DESCRIBED ABOVE. $$ WALLACE