000 AXNT20 KNHC 061747 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT JUN 06 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W S OF 8N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. REMAINING EMBEDDED MAINLY WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS...A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM IS NOTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 4N BETWEEN 42W-51W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 18 KT. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WAVE HAS FRACTURED OFF AS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ALONG 25N56W TO 20N59W. A SECOND SOURCE OF LOWER LEVEL ENERGY LAGS BEHIND...ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 24N49W TO 20N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 10N BETWEEN 49W-61W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACCOMPANY THE SURFACE TROUGHS FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 47W-58W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 5N21W 2N29W 1N45W AND INLAND ACROSS NE BRAZIL AND THE ERN GUYANAS REGION NEAR 3N52W. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 7W-22W. ALSO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 28W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS ACROSS THE NE GULF WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH DIPPING S OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER SE GEORGIA AND EXTENDS A SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE SRN BIG BEND REGION OF FLORIDA AND INTO THE ERN GULF ALONG 28N83W 26N86W 22N90W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE E GULF AND NRN FLORIDA N OF 25N E OF 84W. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER INTO THE WRN GULF AND ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE W OF 85W. CARIBBEAN SEA... CYCLONIC FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE E GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. MOIST SWLY UPPER FLOW DOMINATES ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN W OF 70W AND IS PROVIDING AN UPPER DIFFLUENT AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THIS IN TURN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 82W-86W EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL CUBA. ANOTHER AREA IMPACTED BY THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS LOCATED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ON A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 10N80W AND EXTENDS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 14N80W INTO THE LOW. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF ELY TRADE WINDS AND THE PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ARE PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 75W-84W. THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY NW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE W ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 69W. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES ALOFT...MOIST SW TO SLY UPPER FLOW DOMINATES THE W ATLC W OF 69W. THIS UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS AND AREAS IN THE W ATLC N OF 24N AND W OF 69W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE IS PRESENT ANCHORED ON A PAIR OF 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERS LOCATED NEAR 33N35W AND 31N49W WHERE FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES MOST OF THE ATLC WATERS E OF 69W. HOWEVER...A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE ANALYZED NORTH OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 58W AND ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 47W-58W. THESE SHOWERS ARE FURTHER SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N57W. $$ HUFFMAN