000 AXNT20 KNHC 051751 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI JUN 05 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W S OF 8N MOVING W AT 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS BECOME INCREASING SUPPRESSED BY A MID-LEVEL DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND LACKS ANY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD SIGNATURE OR DEEP CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN CONFINED ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS S OF 4N BETWEEN 35W-38W. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N48W TO 10N50W TO 4N50W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BASED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD FIELD AND APPEARS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A DRY LOW/MID-LEVEL SAHARAN AIR LAYER...WHICH IS SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION E OF THE WAVE TO THE W AFRICAN COAST. HOWEVER... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 46W-54W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W/89W OVER WESTERN HONDURAS AND EL-SALVADOR EXTENDING INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. FOR MORE DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO THE E PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER TWDEP OR WMO HEADER AXPZ20 KNHC FOR MORE INFORMATION. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 7N20W 3N34W 3N38W 4N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 13W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 18W-25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRESENT ACROSS THE GULF REGION WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN N TO BEYOND 30N87W AND OVER THE SE CONUS. THIS UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N86W AND EXTENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE GULF ALONG 29N86W 26N88W 24N92W TO 24N94W WHERE IT CONTINUES STATIONARY INTO DEEP SRN TEXAS NEAR BROWNSVILLE. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT E OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...ARE SUPPORTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS THE NE GULF N OF 26N AND ACROSS NRN FLORIDA. ACROSS MUCH OF THE W GULF...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF WATERS SLOWLY DISSIPATING THROUGH SATURDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM E-NE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE RIDGE N OF THE CARIBBEAN IN THE CENTRAL ATLC COMBINED WITH BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ELY TRADE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN S OF 18N. THE TRADE WINDS ARE ADVECTING POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WWD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...WITH THE GREATEST AREA OF THESE SHOWERS NE OF A LINE FROM 10N61W OVER TRINIDAD TO 18N72W OVER S/CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. THIS AREA INCLUDES ERN HISPANIOLA... PUERTO RICO...AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N W OF 75W AIDED BY LOW-LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE OF THE ELY TRADE WINDS AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DIFFLUENCE ACROSS NRN SOUTH AMERICA AND THE WRN CARIBBEAN. THE TRADES ARE FORECAST TO RELAX LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WEAKENS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 23N W OF 74W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT NEARBY COASTAL WATERS. ADDITIONALLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 52W-61W...WHERE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY IS PRESENT NEAR AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N59W. ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ANCHORED ON A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 35N42W. ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS S OF 15N E OF 50W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH NEAR 6N24W. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. $$ HUFFMAN