000 AXNT20 KNHC 050537 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI JUN 05 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W/34W S OF 9N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BASED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. THE CIMSS WAVETRAK PRODUCT DEPICTS LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR THE WAVE. THIS WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH DRY LOW/MID-LEVEL SAHARAN AIR...WHICH IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 32W-35W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A RATHER HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BASED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD FIELD...WITH SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATING CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW NEAR THIS WAVE. THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE INTERACTING WITH DRY LOW/MID-LEVEL SAHARAN AIR...WHICH IS SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 42W-48W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 86W/87W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS INDICATES THAT THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THE CIMSS WAVETRAK PRODUCT ALSO DEPICTS LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 13N-15N INCLUDING PORTIONS OF HONDURAS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR THIS TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EAST PACIFIC REGION. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N17W 6N23W 3N32W 1N43W AND INTO NE BRAZIL ALONG THE EQUATOR NEAR 51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 12W-22W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 25W-29W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 37W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRESENT ACROSS THE GULF REGION WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 23N87W TO 25N88W TO 30N88W TO N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT E OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W INCLUDING ADJACENT INLAND AREAS ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 27N86W TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND NEAR 30N84W TO N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. ALSO...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE N GULF THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N91W TO 29N89W TO S MISSISSIPPI NEAR 30N88W TO N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. ACROSS MUCH OF THE W GULF...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH SW TO W WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT PRESENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND E GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER... UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. ADDITIONALLY... ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CUBA...COSTA RICA...W PANAMA...AND NEARBY COASTAL LOCATIONS. A SURFACE RIDGE N OF THE CARIBBEAN COMBINED WITH BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THE STRONGEST OF THESE TRADE WINDS ARE FOUND NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...WHERE NE WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT ARE OCCURRING. THE TRADE WINDS ARE ADVECTING POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF THESE SHOWERS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 64W-67W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF 23N W OF 76W INCLUDING CUBA...THE NW BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT INLAND AREAS OF FLORIDA. ADDITIONALLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 24N BETWEEN 53W-62W...WHERE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY IS PRESENT NEAR AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 31N40W. THIS SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY. ACROSS THE E ATLC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N27W TO 31N23W TO NE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH. ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS S OF 14N E OF 52W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH NEAR 8N26W. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ AND THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES ALONG 33W/34W S OF 9N AND ALONG 47W/48W S OF 18N. $$ COHEN