000 AXNT20 KNHC 042351 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU JUN 04 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W S OF 8N MOVING W NEAR 12 KT. THIS IS A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE THAT EXHIBITS A VERY WEAK INVERTED-V CLOUD SIGNATURE SOUTH OF A MIDDLE LEVEL DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 12 KT. THIS IS A HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE AS SEEN ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A LARGE INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD FIELD. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 5N-20N BETWEEN 41W-48W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 85W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 12 KT. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS INDICATES THAT THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND IS INTERACTING WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS PANAMA AND NRN COLOMBIA GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 78-84W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 6N20W 1N40W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR EQ50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 10W-13W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FURTHER W FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 13W-19W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 20W-27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM SE LOUISIANA AT 30N89W TO 25N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM E OF THE FRONT. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT 30N85W TO 27N87W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 83W-87W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 80W-84W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N FLORIDA FROM N OF 28N BETWEEN 80W-82W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE GULF E OF 90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE W GULF. EXPECT... CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES E. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA SEE ABOVE. FRESH TRADES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. STRONGEST WINDS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 70W-75W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER GUATEMALA...AND BELIZE FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 88W-91W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA...AND CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER N CARIBBEAN N OF 17N...AND OVER SOUTH AMERICA S OF 10N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. EXPECT...CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAHAMAS MOVING NW. A 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N44W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-70W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 50W-60W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N43W. IN THE TROPICS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 9N31W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS BETWEEN 10W-60W ALONG 9N. EXPECT...THE SHOWERS OVER THE BAHAMAS TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. $$ FORMOSA