000 AXNT20 KNHC 041111 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED JUN 03 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A RATHER HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BASED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE CORRESPONDS WITH A LARGE INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD FIELD...WITH SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATING CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW NEAR THIS WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 38W-43W. THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE AT THE LEADING EDGE OF DRY LOW/MID-LEVEL SAHARAN AIR...WHICH IS FURTHER ENHANCING THIS CONVECTION AND INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH THE CONVECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE ALONG 81W/82W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS INDICATES THAT THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH AN INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD FIELD. THE CIMSS WAVETRAK PRODUCT ALSO DEPICTS LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 12N. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 5N21W 4N33W 4N41W AND INTO NE BRAZIL ALONG THE EQUATOR NEAR 51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 9W-16W AND FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 20W-24W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 29W-33W AND S OF 3N BETWEEN 44W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRESENT ACROSS THE GULF REGION WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N89W TO 26N90W TO 30N90W TO N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT E OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF N OF 22N E OF 90W INCLUDING ADJACENT INLAND AREAS ALONG THE GULF COAST. ALSO...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE NW GULF EXTENDING FROM SW LOUISIANA NEAR 30N93W TO SE TEXAS NEAR 28N97W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N W OF 90W INCLUDING ADJACENT INLAND AREAS ALONG THE GULF COAST. ACROSS THE SW GULF...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ARE SUPPORTING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. THIS SUBSIDENCE IS BEING ENHANCED AROUND A 1015 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 27N88W. THIS SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT DAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF AS A COLD FRONT DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...AND EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO S TEXAS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SW TO W WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT WILL BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND E GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER... UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE RIDGE N OF THE CARIBBEAN COMBINED WITH BROAD LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THE STRONGEST OF THESE TRADE WINDS ARE FOUND NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...WHERE NE WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT ARE OCCURRING. THE TRADE WINDS ARE ADVECTING POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF THESE SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 17N63W TO E OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N65W INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE NEAR AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC ARE RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-30N W OF 76W INCLUDING CUBA...THE NW BAHAMAS...AND ADJACENT INLAND AREAS OF FLORIDA. ADDITIONALLY...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM E OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N65W TO 21N65W. ALSO... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING N OF 24N BETWEEN 58W-67W...WHERE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY IS PRESENT NEAR AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. HOWEVER...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TO 32N29W TO 32N31W. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH. ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS S OF 14N E OF 53W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH NEAR 8N32W. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ AND THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 42W/43W S OF 16N. $$ COHEN