000 AXNT20 KNHC 040545 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED JUN 03 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W S OF 17N MOVING W 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS HIGH AMPLITUDE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH A LARGE INVERTED V SIGNATURE APPARENT IN THE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND AN ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MAXIMUM NOTED IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT. WHILE THE WAVE STRUCTURE IS WELL DEFINED... CONVECTION IS ISOLATED MAINLY WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 10N. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 81W S OF 17N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS...MORE SO TODAY THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT CONTINUES TO LACK DEEP MOISTURE. THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT IS THE ENHANCED TRADES E OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 6N21W 2N33W 1N43W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 19W-22W AND FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 23W-31W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 3N BETWEEN 43W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN GULF ALONG 93W/94W IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. SWLY UPPER FLOW E OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS ADVECTING CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE E OF 90W. HOWEVER...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EMBEDDED IN THIS MOISTURE PLUME AT THE MOMENT. ADDITIONALLY...SHALLOW SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH FL STRAITS DRIVEN BY LOW-LEVEL ELY FLOW. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING OVER THE NW GULF ALONG THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS...ENHANCED BY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR BATON ROUGE TO 28N94W. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THEN CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTS E. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE TROUGH CUT OFF OVER THE E GULF BY FRI AND SAT...BRINGING THE GREATEST CHANCE OF TSTMS TO THE FAR E WATERS. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MID AND UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO FLATTEN AND IS NOW NEARLY ZONAL. STRONG W-NW FLOW ALOFT IS TRANSPORTING MOISTURE N OF 18N. THIS MOISTENED ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH A WEAK LOW-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. TRADE WINDS REMAIN 20-30 KT ACROSS THE S CENTRAL PORTION DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH OVER THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC AND LOWER PRES OVER NRN SOUTH AMERICA. E WINDS OCCASIONALLY NEAR 20 KT EXIST OVER THE TOPOGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED GULF OF HONDURAS. LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE FLOWS ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLC DISCUSSION ZONE REMAIN QUIET...WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO NOTE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE S OF 23N W OF 60W... INCLUDING THE SRN BAHAMAS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER JET...A WEAK LOW-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN LEEWARDS...AND THE REMNANTS OF A LOW-LEVEL E-W ORIENTED SHEAR AXIS. A LARGE SCALE DEEP LAYER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC...WITH A SERIES OF SFC HIGHS SPREAD OUT ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 30N33W TO 27N40W ONLY GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS. THE E ATLC IS MAINLY UNDER AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A DEEP LOW CENTERED SEVERAL HUNDRED NM N-NE OF THE AZORES. WINDS ARE LIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE SUBTROPICS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE BROAD RIDGE. TRADE WINDS ARE GENERALLY 15-20 KT ACROSS THE TROPICS. NLY WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY STRONGER NEAR THE COAST OF AFRICA BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE CANARY ISLANDS DUE TO THE USUAL TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER AFRICA. $$ CANGIALOSI