000
AXNT20 KNHC 040000
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUN 03 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W S OF 18N MOVING W AT 12 KT. 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WAVE WITH 
CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. 
THIS WAVE ALSO SHOWS UP VERY WELL AS A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE 
MAXIMUM ON THE PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 34W-42W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 79W/80W S OF 17N 
MOVING W AT 15 KT. THIS WAVE EXHIBITS SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUD 
TURNING WITH NO CONVECTION. A BULGE OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE IS 
ALSO NOTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 5N20W 3N30W 1N40W AND INTO 
NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE 
COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 10W-12W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 23W-28W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A WEAK 1013 MB LOW IS ALONG THE COAST OF SE 
LOUISIANA NEAR 30N89W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE 
LOW OVER THE NE GULF FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 85W-88W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 21N-30N 
BETWEEN 88W-93W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER INLAND FLORIDA N OF 
26N. AWAY FROM THE SURFACE LOW...THE GULF HAS PREDOMINATELY 10 
KT SE WINDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER 
THE NW GULF NEAR 30N93W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER LOW IS 
ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA. CONSIDERABLE 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE GULF E OF 93W. EXPECT... 
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS.    

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEE ABOVE. FRESH TRADES 
ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. STRONGEST WINDS 
ARE ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS INLAND OVER GUATEMALA...AND S MEXICO FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 
90W-94W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND OVER THE 
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND CUBA. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 
60W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER N CARIBBEAN N OF 
17N...AND OVER SOUTH AMERICA S OF 10N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER 
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. EXPECT...THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W OVER 
THE SRN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR BERMUDA AT 29N64W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAHAMAS MOVING NW. ANOTHER 1022 
MB HIGH IS FURTHER E NEAR 29N45W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N32W TO 27N41W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS 
N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-75W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 50W-60W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N43W. IN THE TROPICS...AN UPPER LEVEL 
HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 8N28W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS BETWEEN 
10W-60W ALONG 8N. EXPECT...THE SHOWERS OVER THE BAHAMAS TO 
PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.    

$$
FORMOSA