000 AXNT20 KNHC 031759 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED JUN 03 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 12 KT. AN EARLIER MORNING SCATTEROMETER PASS AND METEOSAT-9 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WAVE WITH CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE WIND AND CLOUD FIELD ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. THIS WAVE ALSO SHOWS UP VERY WELL AS A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS THAT REACHES TO NEAR 18N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 35W-39W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 78W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE EXHIBITS LITTLE SIGNATURE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OR IN AVAILABLE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN. CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A NWD BULGE OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE NOTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 4N21W 2N36W 2N40W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S47W. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 37W...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 7N BETWEEN 12W-33W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO S OF 3N BETWEEN 46W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF N OF 22N BETWEEN 86W-93W. THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK 1013 MB LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA NEAR 28N90W AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN GULF. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE E OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE NE GULF IS ALSO SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 27N W OF 82W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS IN A MOIST AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTED BY STRONG SW TO W FLOW ALOFT...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SE GULF AND FLORIDA KEYS. SE AND S WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE GULF BASED ON A 1200 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS. THE SURFACE LOW IN THE N/CENTRAL GULF IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE AND BECOME ABSORBED BY THE NEXT DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SRN PLAINS WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF EARLY THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS AMPLIFIED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA W OF 68W AND TROUGHING E OF 68W. STRONG W-SWLY FLOW ALOFT IS ADVECTING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS N OF 17N...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE ERN YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND MUCH OF WRN CUBA...WHERE THE UPPER FLOW IS DIFFLUENT. THIS DIFFLUENT ZONE STRETCHES FARTHER TO THE E-SE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF ELY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 17N E OF 72W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN AN OVERALL CONFLUENT ZONE BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND RIDGE. THIS OVERALL PATTERN IS PROMOTING STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS AND FAIR WEATHER AT THE SURFACE. TRADE WINDS REMAIN 20-30 KT ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH OVER THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER NRN SOUTH AMERICA WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WRN AND CENTRAL ATLC. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLC DISCUSSION ZONE ARE FAIRLY TRANQUIL AND QUIET...WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO NOTE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE S OF 28N W OF 68W...INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER JET AND SPEED CONVERGENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL SELY SURFACE WINDS. ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS...GENERATED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...IS FROM 26N-34N BETWEEN 57W-67W. AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC...THOUGH A STRETCHED UPPER LOW NEAR 24N44W IS INTERRUPTING THE RIDGE. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 30N33W TO 27N40W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FEATURE. NONETHELESS...FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AS A PAIR OF 1023 MB HIGHS ARE LOCATED NEAR 28N55W AND 29N45W. ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 27N28W. THE E ATLC IS MAINLY UNDER AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A DEEP LOW CENTERED SEVERAL HUNDRED NM NE OF THE AZORES. OTHERWISE DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ...PARTICULARLY E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 37W. $$ HUFFMAN