000 AXNT20 KNHC 031050 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED JUN 03 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W S OF 14N MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. THE 03/06 UTC MAP SHOWED AN INCREASED IN LATITUDINAL EXTENT BASED ON THE ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND THE AMPLIFICATION NOTED IN THE MICROWAVE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT. GFS INITIALIZES THIS WAVE REASONABLY WELL SHOWING DISTINCT TROUGHING AT 925 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MAINLY CONFINED TO WITHIN THE INTERSECTION OF THE ITCZ FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 34W-38W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 75W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS LITTLE SIGNATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OR IN AVAILABLE SFC OBSERVATIONS. ITS CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A NARROW WWD MOVING MOISTURE MAXIMUM IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER FIELD. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 5N21W 3N30W 2N42W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-10N BETWEEN 10W-18W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 18W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 32W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF N OF 23N BETWEEN 85W-91W. THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ENHANCED BY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAKENING SFC TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTED BY STRONG SW TO W FLOW ALOFT...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SE GULF. SE AND S WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS ARE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE GULF BASED ON THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS...THOUGH BUOYS REPORTS INDICATE THAT GUSTS OVER 20 KT ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SFC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE N AND WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW GULF THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MID-UPPER PATTERN REMAINS AMPLIFIED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA W OF 70W AND TROUGHING E OF THERE. STRONG SW/W FLOW ALOFT IS ADVECTING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS N OF 18N...WITH IR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA REVEALING A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER NRN CENTRAL AMERICA...WHERE THE UPPER FLOW IS DIFFLUENT. THE ATMOSPHERE IS MORE STABLE OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IN AN OVERALL CONFLUENT ZONE BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND RIDGE. SW FLOW ALOFT E OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS ADVECTING SOME CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...BUT THE DEEP MOISTURE IS S AND E OF THE AREA. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A REMNANT SHEAR AXIS AND MOIST ELY FLOW IS GENERATING AND STEERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN. TRADE WINDS REMAIN 20-30 KT ACROSS THE S CENTRAL PORTION DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH OVER THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC AND LOWER PRES OVER NRN SOUTH AMERICA. E WINDS NEAR 20 KT EXIST OVER THE TOPOGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED GULF OF HONDURAS. LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE FLOWS ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLC DISCUSSION ZONE ARE QUIET...WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO MENTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE S OF 27N W OF 62W...INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER JET AND THE REMNANTS OF A LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. AMPLIFIED DEEP LAYER RIDGING DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC...THOUGH A STRETCHED UPPER LOW NEAR 25N40W IS INTERRUPTING THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY. NONETHELESS...FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SHALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE E ATLC IS MAINLY UNDER AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A DEEP LOW CENTERED SEVERAL HUNDRED NM N OF THE AZORES. THE SECONDARY SMALLER LOW HAS OPENED INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH FROM 31N35W TO 28N43W. WINDS APPEAR MAINLY LESS THAN 20 KT ALONG THE TROUGH BASED ON EARLIER ASCAT DATA. DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ...PARTICULARLY E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 36W AND NEAR ANOTHER WAVE ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA. $$ CANGIALOSI