000
AXNT20 KNHC 030534
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUN 03 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W S OF 10N MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. THIS 
WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AMPLIFIED MAXIMUM IN TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER. SHORTWAVE IR IMAGERY AND 600-950 MB CLOUD 
DRIFT WINDS REVEAL CYCLONIC TURNING ABOUT THE AXIS AND A SLIGHT 
INVERTED-V STRUCTURE. GFS INITIALIZES THIS WAVE REASONABLY WELL 
SHOWING DISTINCT TROUGHING AT 925 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 34W-36W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 75W S OF 
15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS LITTLE SIGNATURE ON 
SATELLITE IMAGERY OR IN AVAILABLE SFC OBSERVATIONS. ITS CURRENT 
POSITION IS BASED ON A NARROW WWD MOVING MOISTURE MAXIMUM IN THE 
TPW FIELD. 

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 4N25W 2N38W 1N46W TO THE 
EQUATOR ALONG 51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 11W-16W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 18W-29W AND FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 34W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF N 
OF 26N BETWEEN 86W-91W...THOUGH THE ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED IN 
INTENSITY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER 
IS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND 
ENHANCED BY SLIGHT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAKENING SFC 
TROUGH. SFC WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE GULF...BUT 
BUOYS HAVE REPORTED GUSTS OVER 20 KT IN THE TSTM ACTIVITY. THE 
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTED BY 
STRONG SW TO W FLOW ALOFT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE 
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...MOST LIKELY OVER THE NW GULF 
WHERE THE FLOW IS MORE DIFFLUENT. THE SFC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO 
MOVE N AND WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW GULF THU. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MID-UPPER PATTERN REMAINS AMPLIFIED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH 
A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA W OF 70W AND TROUGHING E OF THERE. 
STRONG SW/W FLOW ALOFT IS ADVECTING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS N 
OF 18N W OF 73W...WITH IR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA REVEALING A 
FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER NRN CENTRAL AMERICA...THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA...AND NEAR ERN CUBA WHERE THE UPPER FLOW IS DIFFLUENT. 
THE ATMOSPHERE IS MORE STABLE OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE 
AREA IN AN OVERALL CONFLUENT ZONE BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND RIDGE. 
SW FLOW ALOFT E OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS ADVECTING SOME CLOUDINESS 
ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...BUT THE DEEP MOISTURE IS S AND E 
OF THE AREA. TRADE WINDS REMAIN 20-30 KT ACROSS THE S CENTRAL 
PORTION DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH OVER THE 
SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC AND LOWER PRES OVER NRN SOUTH AMERICA. 
E WINDS NEAR 20 KT EXIST OVER THE TOPOGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED GULF 
OF HONDURAS. LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE FLOWS ARE FORECAST OVER THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.       
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLC DISCUSSION ZONE ARE 
QUIET...WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO MENTION. 
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE S OF 27N W OF 62W...INCLUDING THE 
BAHAMAS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER JET AND THE REMNANTS OF A 
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. AMPLIFIED DEEP LAYER RIDGING DOMINATES THE 
CENTRAL ATLC...THOUGH A STRETCHED UPPER LOW NEAR 25N40W IS 
INTERRUPTING THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY. NONETHELESS...FAIR WEATHER 
DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 
SHALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE E ATLC IS MAINLY UNDER AN UPPER 
TROUGH WITH A DEEP LOW CENTERED SEVERAL HUNDRED NM N OF THE 
AZORES. A SECONDARY SMALLER 1018 MB LOW IS LOCATED TO ITS SW 
NEAR 30N39W. SFC OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A 
PRONOUNCED NE-SW ELONGATION OF THE SECONDARY LOW AND BASED ON A 
RECENT ASCAT PASS...WINDS APPEAR MAINLY LESS THAN 20 KT. DEEP 
CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ...PARTICULARLY E OF THE 
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 36W AND NEAR ANOTHER WAVE ALONG THE COAST OF 
AFRICA.    

$$
CANGIALOSI