000
AXNT20 KNHC 022330
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUN 02 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W S OF 10N MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TURNING IN THE STRATOCUMULUS 
FIELD ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. IN ADDITION 30 METER LEVEL 
STREAMLINES INDICATED SOME CYCLONIC TURNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
AXIS OF THE WAVE AS WELL. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 33W-35W. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 73W S OF 
15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN 
INCREASE IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 
PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN. SLIGHT CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL TURNING IS  
ALSO APPARENT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N 
COLOMBIA WITHIN 30 NM OF 11N74W.  

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 4N20W 1N40W TO THE COAST 
OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 9W-11W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 15W-27W. SIMILAR 
CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM EQ-5S BETWEEN 
31W-38W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FROM 26N-31N 
BETWEEN 89W-93W DUE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FURTHER E OVER THE NE GULF AND FLORIDA N OF 26N 
AND E OF 89W. THE ENTIRE GULF HAS SE WINDS MOSTLY 10-15 KT. IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH 
AXIS ALONG 89W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE 
ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...A WEAK LOW TO FORM OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL 
GULF WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.    

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEE ABOVE. 
FRESH TRADES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. 
STRONGEST WINDS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W HONDURAS... 
GUATEMALA...AND EL SALVADOR FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 88W-93W. 
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER COSTA RICA...AND OVER INLAND 
HISPANIOLA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS 
CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N83W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 66W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...THE NW CARIBBEAN...CUBA 
...AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. EXPECT...THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W OVER THE 
SRN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.        
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR BERMUDA AT 32N66W. 
ANOTHER 1022 MB HIGH IS FURTHER E NEAR 29N52W. A 1018 MB LOW IS 
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N39W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS 
FROM 32N35W TO THE LOW CENTER TO 28N45W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW 
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N48W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 15W-35W. IN THE 
TROPICS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 8N30W. A RIDGE 
AXIS EXTENDS BETWEEN 10W-60W ALONG 8N. EXPECT THE LOW OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
WITH SHOWERS.     

$$
FORMOSA