000 AXNT20 KNHC 021103 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE JUN 02 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF A BROAD MAXIMUM IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. SATELLITE IMAGES FROM LATE MON INDICATED A SUBTLE INVERTED-V CLOUD STRUCTURE. SINCE THEN...MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS HAS BECOME MORE LINEAR. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PERSISTS MAINLY TO THE E OF THE AXIS WITHIN THE INTERSECTION OF THE ITCZ FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 26-34W...ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 68W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A NARROW MAXIMUM IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. THE INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER TROUGH IS FUELING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE ERN HALF OF VENEZUELA. SOME CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL TURNING IS APPARENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... PERHAPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE N PERIPHERY OF THE WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N14W 5N20W 4N30W 1N44W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 8W-14W...FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 20W-35W...AND S OF 2N W OF 44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE TROUGH IS SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF FROM 23N88W TO JUST W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND STRONG SW/W FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 25N E OF 95W...WITH THE MOST ORGANIZED ACTIVITY ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. SIMILAR TSTM ACTIVITY IS NEAR THE COASTS OF N MEXICO AND S TEXAS...ENHANCED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG 99W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NE WATERS IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. LOOKING AHEAD A DAY OR TWO...NWP MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SFC TROUGH WILL LIFT N AND WEAKEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MID-UPPER PATTERN REMAINS AMPLIFIED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WRN HALF AND TROUGHING OVER THE ERN HALF. STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SFC TROUGH OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER GUATEMALA... BELIZE...YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ENHANCED BY THE ITCZ. THE ATMOSPHERE IS MORE STABLE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IN AN UPPER CONFLUENT AREA BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND RIDGE. SW FLOW ALOFT E OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE DEEP MOISTURE IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA. TRADE WINDS REMAIN 20-30 KT ACROSS THE S CENTRAL PORTION DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH OVER THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC AND LOWER PRES OVER NRN SOUTH AMERICA. WINDS NEAR 20 KT EXIST OVER THE TOPOGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED GULF OF HONDURAS. LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE FLOWS ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLC DISCUSSION ZONE ARE QUIET...WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO MENTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE S OF 27N W OF 68W...INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER JET AND A WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. THE ASSOCIATED DEBRIS MOISTURE HAS SPREAD WELL TO THE NE THROUGH BERMUDA BY STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED DEEP LAYER RIDGING DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC...THOUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 27N45W IS INTERRUPTING THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY. NONETHELESS...FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SHALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE E ATLC IS MAINLY UNDER AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A DEEP LOW CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED NM N OF THE AZORES. A SECONDARY SMALLER 1017 MB LOW IS LOCATED TO ITS SW NEAR 31N39W. SFC OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A PRONOUNCED E-W ELONGATION OF THE SECONDARY LOW AND BASED ON THE AVAILABLE DATA...WINDS APPEAR MAINLY LESS THAN 20 KT. DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ...PARTICULARLY E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 32W. $$ CANGIALOSI