000 AXNT20 KNHC 020544 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE JUN 02 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W S OF 09N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF A BROAD MAXIMUM IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. SATELLITE IMAGES FROM LATE MON INDICATED A SUBTLE INVERTED-V CLOUD STRUCTURE. SINCE THEN...MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS HAS BECOME MORE LINEAR. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PERSISTS TO THE E OF THE AXIS WITHIN THE INTERSECTION OF THE ITCZ FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 26-30W...ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN ALONG 67W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A NARROW MAXIMUM IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. THE INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER TROUGH IS FUELING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE ERN HALF OF VENEZUELA. SOME CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL TURNING IS APPARENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONA PASSAGE...PERHAPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE N PERIPHERY OF THE WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 5N22W 5N34W 2N42W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 16W-21W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS S OF 6N BETWEEN 24W-34W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 22W-33W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO S OF 3N BETWEEN 42W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE TROUGH IS SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF FROM 26N86W TO THE NW CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND STRONG SW/W FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 24N E OF 93W. LIGHTNING DATA SUGGESTS THAT TSTM ACTIVITY IS SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED NEAR THE COASTS OF N MEXICO AND S TEXAS...ENHANCED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG 101W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NE WATERS IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. LOOKING AHEAD A DAY OR TWO...NWP MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SFC WEAK TROUGH WILL LIFT N AND WEAKEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MID-UPPER PATTERN REMAINS AMPLIFIED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WRN HALF AND TROUGHING OVER THE ERN HALF. STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SFC TROUGH OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER GUATEMALA... BELIZE...YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ENHANCED BY THE ITCZ. THE ATMOSPHERE IS MORE STABLE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IN AN UPPER CONFLUENT AREA BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND RIDGE. SW FLOW ALOFT E OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS OVER VENEZUELA. TRADE WINDS REMAIN 20-30 KT ACROSS THE S CENTRAL PORTION DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH OVER THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC AND LOWER PRES OVER NRN SOUTH AMERICA. WINDS NEAR 20 KT EXIST OVER THE TOPOGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED GULF OF HONDURAS. LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE FLOWS ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLC DISCUSSION ZONE ARE QUIET...WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO MENTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE S OF 27N W OF 70W...INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER JET AND A WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. THE ASSOCIATED DEBRIS MOISTURE HAS SPREAD WELL TO THE NE THRU BERMUDA BY STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED DEEP LAYER RIDGING DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC...THOUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 27N45W IS INTERRUPTING THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY. NONETHELESS...FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SHALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE E ATLC IS MAINLY UNDER AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A DEEP LOW CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED NM N OF THE AZORES. A SECONDARY SMALLER LOW IS LOCATED TO ITS SW NEAR 32N39W PRODUCING 20 KT WINDS...AS REVEALED BY A RECENT ASCAT PASS...AND LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS. MUCH OF THE DEEPER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ...PARTICULARLY E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 32W. $$ CANGIALOSI