000
AXNT20 KNHC 011738
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUN 01 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 29W FROM 03N TO 09N AND IS 
MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
LOCATED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N28W TO 
01N33W. THE WAVE HAS LITTLE AMPLITUDE AND SHOULD REMAIN S OF 
ABOUT 10N AS IT CROSSES THE ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN ALONG 63W S OF 
13N AND IS MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT. THE WAVE HAS BEEN TRACKABLE ON 
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED E OF 
THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 06N11W TO 03N20W TO 05N28W TO 
01N40W TO 01S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS LOCATED WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N16W TO 
02N13W AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 02N20W TO 
05N27W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF WITH 
SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS INDICATING WESTERLY WINDS AS HIGH AS 
55 KT. AT THE SURFACE A LINGERING TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE 
TIP OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO 25.5N89W TO 23N92W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE 
ARE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS LOCATED OFF THE MEXICAN COAST S OF 24N W OF 93.5W. 
A SURFACE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF OVER THE 
NEXT TWO DAYS WITH THE AXIS ALONG 25N/26N. 
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MENTIONED ABOVE ALSO COVERS 
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST FLOW OVER 
THE NW CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NE CARIBBEAN. A MIDDLE/UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS THROUGH EASTERN PUERTO RICO TO 13N69W. 
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE LOCATED SE OF TROUGH AXIS OVER 
THE SE CARIBBEAN. NICE WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE BASIN EXCEPT 
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN 
NICARAGUA COAST SE INTO PANAMA. IN THE AREA FROM 10.5N TO 15N 
BETWEEN 69W AND 80W E TO NE WINDS ARE 20 TO 25 KT EXCEPT TO 30 
KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE SOUTHERN END OF A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS LOCATED 
OFF THE E COAST OF THE UNITED STATES COVERS THE AREA N OF 26N W 
OF 70W WITH THE AXIS THROUGH 32N75W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A 
JET STREAM EXTENDS FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NEAR 25N78W TO 
28N72W TO BEYOND 32N67W WITH WINDS APPROACHING 50 KT. AT THE 
SURFACE A TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM JUST S OF BERMUDA TO THE 
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE 
BAHAMAS AND UP TO 180 NM ALONG AND S OF THE TROUGH E OF 76W. A 
SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM PUERTO RICO TO 22N66W...MOVING W 
ABOUT 15 KT. A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
CENTERED NEAR 23N57.5W...NEARLY STATIONARY. A TROUGH AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM THE CIRCULATION SW ACROSS PUERTO RICO. A BROAD 
LARGE AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC ALOFT IS LOCATED S OF ABOUT 20N 
BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. OVER THE E PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA A 
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 27W N OF 26N WITH 
CYCLONIC FLOW NOTED UP TO 10 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. AT 
THE SURFACE A TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 30N26W TO 26N30W. 
A 1016 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 33N42W AND IS FORECAST TO 
MOVE SE TO NEAR 31N37W IN 24 HOURS.

$$
CAB