000 AXNT20 KNHC 311047 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W S OF 8N MOVING AT 10-15 KT. WHILE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...A SLIGHT CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IS EVIDENT NEAR THE WAVE AXIS AROUND 5N ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 24W-28W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W S OF 10N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. WAVE EXHIBITS A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD SIGNATURE AND COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 8N BETWEEN 52W-58W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 4N24W 3N28W 1N35W AND CONTINUES ALONG THE EQUATOR INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 11W-19W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6N19W 4N26W 2N38W 4N49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0900 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE SRN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE SE GULF NEAR NAPLES CONTINUING ALONG 25N84W 24N88W 23N92W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 24N88W ACROSS THE WRN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NEAR 18N91W. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG WITH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE MAXIMIZED ACROSS WRN CUBA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 26N E OF 82W INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALSO ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN 90 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A WEAK 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED IN THE N/CENTRAL GULF NEAR 28N90W WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS COVERING MUCH OF THE NRN AND WRN GULF WATERS IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE. AS THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EWD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...LIGHT SLY RETURN FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY MONDAY AS THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SRN PLAINS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE S/CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THE WRN YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE SURFACE FEATURE. THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE ACROSS WRN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS SEWD ACROSS W/CENTRAL CUBA AND THE NEARBY COASTAL WATERS N OF 20N BETWEEN 79W-83W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS S OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION SW OF A LINE FROM 14N84W TO 9N76W ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN REMAINS TRANQUIL WHILE DRIER AIR AND NW FLOW DOMINATES ALOFT BETWEEN 63W-82W. AT THE SURFACE...MODERATE TO STRONG ELY TRADE WINDS REMAIN DUE TO THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND THE TYPICAL LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA ANALYZED AS A 1010 MB LOW OVER NRN COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE TRADE WINDS COULD PRODUCE POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN E OF 72W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N77W IN THE W ATLC AND EXTENDS A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR JUPITER TO NAPLES AND INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE S OF 30N TO OVER W/CENTRAL CUBA W OF 73W ACROSS EXTREME SRN FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED UNDER MOIST AND UNSTABLE W TO SW FLOW ALOFT AND AN UPPER DIVERGENT WIND FIELD. A BROAD UPPER LOW IS OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 23N60W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 24N61W TO 18N60W BUT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRIER AIR ALOFT AND ONLY PRODUCING SHALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. OVER THE E ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 14N E OF 35W BUT LACKS ANY DEEP CONVECTION OR PRECIPITATION. AT THE SURFACE...THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 30N50W AND IS BRIDGING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY N OF THE REGION ALONG 31N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 25W-43W. $$ HUFFMAN