000 AXNT20 KNHC 310558 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W MOVING AT 10-15 KT. WHILE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...A SLIGHT CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IS EVIDENT NEAR THE WAVE AXIS AROUND 5N ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ISOLATED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 22W-27W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 10N MOVING W AT 10 KT. WAVE EXHIBITS A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD SIGNATURE AND COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN SOUTH AMERICA IT WILL BECOME HARDER TO DISTINGUISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 7N BETWEEN 50W-56W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 5N22W 4N27W 1N40W AND CONTINUING ALONG THE EQUATOR INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 6W-13W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 5N20W 2N37W 4N48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0300 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE SRN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR FORT MYERS ALONG 24N87W 23N93W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 24N87W ACROSS THE WRN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NEAR 19N91W. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG WITH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE MAXIMIZED ACROSS SRN FLORIDA...WRN CUBA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 26N E OF 84W INCLUDING THE EXTREME SRN FLORIDA PENINSULA...FLORIDA KEYS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALSO ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN 90 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A WEAK 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED IN THE N/CENTRAL GULF NEAR 29N91W WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS COVERING MUCH OF THE NRN AND WRN GULF WATERS IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE. AS THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EWD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...LIGHT SLY RETURN FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY MONDAY AS THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SRN PLAINS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE SURFACE FEATURE THAT ARE DRIFTING EWD OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 18N-21N W OF 85W. THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE ACROSS WRN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS MOVING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE TOP OF AN UPPER RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SRN MEXICO SWD ACROSS W CUBA AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS N OF 21N BETWEEN 80W-83W. THE ITCZ CROSSES COSTA RICA AND WRN PANAMA GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION MAINLY SW OF A LINE FROM 14N83W TO 9N76W ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS TRANQUIL WHILE DRIER AIR AND NW FLOW DOMINATES ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...MODERATE TO STRONG ELY TRADE WINDS REMAIN DUE TO THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND THE TYPICAL LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE TRADE WINDS COULD PRODUCE POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN E OF 72W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N78W IN THE W ATLC AND EXTENDS A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR MELBOURNE TO FORT MYERS AND INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE S OF 30N TO OVER CUBA W OF 77W ACROSS EXTREME SRN FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED UNDER MOIST AND UNSTABLE SWLY FLOW ALOFT AND AN UPPER DIVERGENT WIND FIELD. A BROAD UPPER LOW IS OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 22N61W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 28N56W TO 23N59W BUT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRIER AIR ALOFT AND ONLY PRODUCING SHALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. OVER THE E ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 15N E OF 35W BUT LACKS ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OR PRECIPITATION. AT THE SURFACE...THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 29N46W AND IS BRIDGING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY N OF THE REGION ALONG 31N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 25W-45W. $$ HUFFMAN