000 AXNT20 KNHC 302324 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2245 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W MOVING 10-15 KT. WAVE IS BECOMING LESS DEFINED AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY/CONVECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W S OF 10N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS FAIRLY WELL DEFINED IN THE LOW CLOUDS BUT IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND WILL BE HARDER TO DISTINGUISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY/CONVECTION. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N11W 4N20W 1N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 38W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 7W-12W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF LIBERIA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SW AFRICA E OF 7W TO THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF EQUATOR BETWEEN 32W-53W. ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF FROM THE W ATLC OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR FORT MYERS ALONG 24N87W 22N94W TO THE NE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR LAGUNA MADRE AND IS BEGINNING TO STALL. SE OF THE FRONT ARE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY S OF 25N E OF 88W INCLUDING W CUBA...S FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER NE MEXICO MOVING INTO THE GULF FROM 26N TO THE FRONT W OF 95W. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER WITH WEAK/MODERATE SURFACE WINDS COVERING THE N GULF IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE N GULF REMAINS TRANQUIL THIS EVENING. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO OVER W GUATEMALA PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE DRIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN MAINLY N OF 20N W OF 85W. THE COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO IS BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWARD ACROSS W CUBA AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS N OF 21N BETWEEN 78W-85W. THE ITCZ CROSSES PANAMA FROM COLOMBIA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION MAINLY INLAND OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS STRAYING INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS TRANQUIL THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS REMAIN DUE TO THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC BASIN AND THE TYPICAL LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. THESE TRADE WINDS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN ACTIVE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N78W EXTENDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM S OF DAYTONA BEACH TO NEAR FORT MYERS AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 30N TO OVER CUBA W OF 77W ACROSS S FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST TO THE E EXTENDING FROM 31N72W TO JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 26N73W TO BEYOND 32N68W. A BROAD UPPER LOW IS OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC N OF PUERTO RICO SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N57W TO 22N58W BUT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR AND ONLY PRODUCING POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. OVER THE E ATLC...THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N26W ALONG 27N31W TO 25N40W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR AND IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 31N47W AND IS BRIDGING ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY N OF THE REGION. $$ WALLACE