000 AXNT20 KNHC 300557 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W S OF 9N MOVING W 15-20 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS INDICATES THAT THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. ALSO...AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS AROUND 2130 UTC OBSERVED CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE WINDS NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 6N BETWEEN 46W-51W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 5N24W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 33W EXTENDING TO 2S40W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N BETWEEN 18W-24W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO S OF 5N BETWEEN 40W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT IS PRESENT ACROSS THE ERN GULF AND AT 30/0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM THE BIG BEND REGION OF FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W TO 27N86W TO 26N91W. ALSO...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N86W TO THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N89W. WHILE REMAINING A RELATIVELY DRY FRONT...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY E OF THE BOUNDARY IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM ACROSS THE SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 23N-26N E OF 84W. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN MOIST ZONAL WLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ACROSS THE N GULF AND N OF THE COLD FRONT...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS OCCURRING WHERE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS AND A SURFACE RIDGE ARE PRESENT. A FEW EWD MOVING SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE ACROSS THE WRN GULF FROM REMAINING CONVECTION ACROSS INLAND ERN MEXICO THIS EVENING. CARIBBEAN SEA... DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT...ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL DRY SAHARAN AIR...ARE RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AS AN EARLIER QSCAT PASS AROUND 2300 UTC OBSERVED MAINLY 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WRN CARIBBEAN. THE STRONGEST OF THESE WINDS...UP TO 25 KT...WERE OBSERVED NEAR THE NRN COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND NWRN VENEZUELA. ALSO...ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC AND A UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 23N-29N W OF 72W INCLUDING THE NW AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS LOCATED OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST N OF 30N W OF 78W DUE TO A COLD FRONT DRAPED 60/90 NM INLAND ALONG THE ERN CONUS COAST. ALSO...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO THE NW OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N55W ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 61W-66W. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N64W TO 27N66W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND EXTENDS FROM 24N57W TO 20N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 51W-59W. FARTHER TO THE E...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALONG 27N25W 22N37W 21N47W IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N27W ALONG 29N30W TO 27N36W CONTINUING WWD AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO 28N45W. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. BEHIND THE FRONTS...A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 32N53W. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE HIGH IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ACROSS THE E ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE IS PRESENT WHERE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS OCCURRING AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST. ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRESENT S OF 15N E OF 55W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH NEAR 7N33W. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ AND THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 49W S OF 9N. $$ HUFFMAN