000 AXNT20 KNHC 290554 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE IS CENTERED NEAR 38.1N 67.8W AT 29/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 255 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS AND ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MOVING ENE AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 37N-39N BETWEEN 66W-67W. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY...BUT THEN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE OVER COLDER WATERS THIS EVENING. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W S OF 8N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS INDICATES THAT THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. ALSO...CIMSS WAVETRAK PRODUCT INDICATES A MAXIMUM IN LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND THE WAVE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 43W-46W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 1N30W 2N40W EXTENDING INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR EQ50W. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE W COAST OF AFRICA FROM 1N-10N BETWEEN 10W-16W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-2S BETWEEN 22W-24W... AND FROM EQ-3S BETWEEN 35W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 31N87W 27N91W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 84W-85W. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 18N-25N BETWEEN 93W-98W. NW 10 KT WINDS ARE W OF THE FRONT WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO HAVE SOUTHERLY 5-10 KT SURFACE FLOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER TEXAS AND THE NW GULF. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING THE SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF E OF 90W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE GULF EXCEPT THE NW GULF WHERE SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED. EXPECT... THE COLD FRONT TO DRIFT E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST OVER S FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1008 MB LOW IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 71W-80W. FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 86W-89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...HISPANIOLA... AND PUERTO RICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N72W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT...STRONGEST CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CUBA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 68W-72W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 27N51W 21N54W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N33W 29N40W 28N45W. A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 25N36W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE W ATLANTIC W OF 75W. A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-75W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 40W-50W. IN THE TROPICS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 10N17W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS E OF 40W. EXPECT...THE SHOWERS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 65W TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. $$ FORMOSA