000
AXNT20 KNHC 270525
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W S OF 14N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE 
POSITION BASED ON PROPAGATION CONTINUITY AS IT REMAINS DIFFICULT 
TO DEPICT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT 
FROM CIMSS SHOWS MOISTURE MOVING WESTWARD TO THE SW CARIBBEAN. 
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OR SHOWERS ARE NOTED.
 
...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 5N20W 1N30W CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR NEAR 32W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S40W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 
20W-30W...FROM EQ-5S BETWEEN 25W-30W...AND FROM EQ-4S BETWEEN 
31W-36W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 
25N-27N BETWEEN 83W-86W MOVING S. SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSISTS 
OVER INLAND FLORIDA. THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO HAVE 
SOUTHERLY 10-15 KT SURFACE FLOW. SMOKE AND HAZY CONDITIONS ARE S 
OF 25N W OF 86W DUE TO  WILDFIRES ACROSS SRN MEXICO AND THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW 
IS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N85W. THIS SYSTEM IS 
DRIVING THE SE GULF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH. CONSIDERABLE UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE NE GULF AND FLORIDA. SUBSIDENCE IS 
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT...SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER 
FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1008 MB LOW IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO 
GUATEMALA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS 
PRODUCING NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OVER THE CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. 
FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE OVER JAMAICA...E CUBA...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE 
LEEWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NW FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO TRINIDAD. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
IS OVER THE AREA. EXPECT STRONGEST CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE 
BAHAMAS FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 69W-72W. A 1022 MB HIGH IS E OF 
BERMUDA NEAR 32N60W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 
60W-80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-60W. IN 
THE TROPICS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 6N28W. ZONAL 
FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC AREA. EXPECT...THE 
SHOWERS E OF THE BAHAMAS TO DRIFT E AND PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. 

$$
FORMOSA