000 AXNT20 KNHC 261752 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 34W HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM THE 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS DUE TO LACK OF BEING ABLE TO DISCERN THE WAVE OFF OF VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. IT APPEARS THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY HAS BEEN ABSORBED BACK INTO THE ITCZ WITH AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS AROUND 0830 UTC SHOWING NE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC TO VERY NEAR THE EQUATOR AROUND 2N. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W S OF 14N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE POSITION BASED ON PROPAGATION CONTINUITY AS IT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO DEPICT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS INDICATES THE WAVE CONTINUES MOVING MAINLY ACROSS INLAND VENEZUELA UNDER NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT WHICH IS INHIBITING ANY DEEP MOIST CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 4N20W 1N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 39W EXTENDING INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 22W-33W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 3N BETWEEN 36W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRESENT ACROSS THE N/CENTRAL AND NE GULF EXTENDING OVER FLORIDA AND INTO THE W ATLC. WEAK LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE NE GULF N OF 26N E OF 88W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NRN GULF...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE DISSIPATING ACROSS THE NW GULF AS ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR ALOFT AND AN OVERALL SUBSIDENT ATMOSPHERE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH. ACROSS THE SRN GULF... DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IN WLY FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. OF NOTE...LIGHT SLY RETURN FLOW IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE SW GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE...WITH AREAS OF SMOKE AND HAZY CONDITIONS S OF 25N W OF 86W FROM WILDFIRES ONGOING ACROSS SRN MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE EXTREME NRN PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N BETWEEN 61W-78W... INCLUDING THE GREATER ANTILLES AND NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO TO OVER WRN CUBA. ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N AND ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER HIGH AND RIDGE CENTERED W OF COSTA RICA IN THE E PACIFIC. MEANWHILE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT S OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE E OF BERMUDA IS MAINTAINING ELY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ERN CARIBBEAN. ADDITIONALLY...A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 68W. PLEASE SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N77W INTO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 29N75W AND CONTINUING TO 26N73W. THIS ACTIVITY IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE NE GULF...FLORIDA AND THE FAR WRN SW NORTH ATLC WATERS PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE N OF 22N BETWEEN 68W-79W. THE SURFACE LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NWD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT E OF THE DEVELOPING LOW. A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH IS E OF BERMUDA CENTERED NEAR 31N60W...WITH SUBSIDENCE RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER NEAR THIS SURFACE HIGH. FARTHER TO THE E...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS PRESENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 30N45W TO 20N60W. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK 1019 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N50W. ENHANCED CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WELL SE OF THE SURFACE LOW WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 26N44W TO 22N47W TO 19N63W. ACROSS THE E ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE IS PRESENT WHERE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS OCCURRING AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST. ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES S OF 15N E OF 45W. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. $$ HUFFMAN