000 AXNT20 KNHC 261045 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W S OF 10N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS INDICATES THAT THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. ALSO... CIMSS WAVETRACK PRODUCT INDICATES A MAXIMUM IN LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND THE WAVE. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE E ATLC IS SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THIS WAVE. ALSO DRY AIR AND DUST OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA IS ALSO SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AS DEPICTED ON THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER TRACKING PRODUCT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 32W-36W MOSTLY DUE TO THE WAVE'S PROXIMITY TO THE ITCZ. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W S OF 14N MOVING W 15 KT. RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE LOW LEVEL WINDS AROUND THIS WAVE. THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BASED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING INLAND OVER VENEZUELA FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 62W-67W. FARTHER TO THE NORTH OVER THE CARIBBEAN...DEEP CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THIS WAVE IS BEING SUPPRESSED BY SUBSIDENCE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 4N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 33W EXTENDING TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 7W-10W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 18W-28W...FROM EQ-5S BETWEEN 26W-32W...AND FROM 3N-1S BETWEEN 36W-41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S TEXAS FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 96W-100W MOVING E. THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO HAVE SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. WIND SPEEDS ARE PREDOMINATELY 5-10 KT WITH 15 KT WINDS NOTED ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NE GULF N OF 26N E OF 87W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALSO OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF E OF 90W HELPING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THIS AREA. SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT...SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1009 MB LOW IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 70W-78W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS PRODUCING NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OVER THE CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN DUE TO A SLIGHTLY STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER PANAMA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 81W-84W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER NICARAGUA...E CUBA...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NW FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO TRINIDAD. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE AREA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE BAHAMAS ALONG 30N76W 25N74W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND SHOWERS ARE FROM 21N-32N BETWEEN 70W-76W. A 1022 MB HIGH IS E OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N59W. A WEAK 1016 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N50W. A TROUGH EXTENDS S ALONG 30N46W 26N47W 21N51W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TROUGH FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 45W-56W. A 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR THE AZORES AT 38N22W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 65W-80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-65W. IN THE TROPICS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 2N22W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC AREA. EXPECT...THE SHOWERS E OF THE BAHAMAS TO DRIFT E AND PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. $$ FORMOSA