000
AXNT20 KNHC 251050
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE 
WAVE MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH 
EMBEDDED SHOWERS. A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS NOTED ON  
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN 56W-60W.   
 
...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 4N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR 
NEAR 31W EXTENDING TO 1S40W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 12W-20W...FROM EQ-2S  
BETWEEN 20W-22W...AND FROM EQ-2S BETWEEN 25W-28W. CLUSTERS OF 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE COAST OF NE 
BRAZIL FROM EQ-6S BETWEEN 32W-50W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... 
THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO HAS 5-10 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 
23N-28N BETWEEN 84W-87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ALONG THE 
COAST OF LOUISIANA N OF 26N BETWEEN 90W-94W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS 
...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF E OF 
90W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THIS AREA. 
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT... A 
SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE FROM E TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.   
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1008 MB LOW IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA AND A TROPICAL WAVE IS 
APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN DUE 
TO A SLIGHTLY STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA FROM 9N-14N 
BETWEEN 84W-87W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF E CUBA 
FROM 19N-20N BETWEEN 75W-78W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NW FLOW 
EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO TRINIDAD. CONSIDERABLE 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE AREA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.   

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
OVER THE W ATLANTIC...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 73W-76W...WHILE ISOLATED 
SHOWERS PERSISTS N OF 20N BETWEEN 73W-80W. A 1023 MB HIGH IS 
OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 34N60W. A STATIONARY 1018 MB LOW IS 
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N49W. A TROUGH EXTENDS S ALONG 
28N48W 21N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH 
AXIS. A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 36N32W. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 
70W-80W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N46W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E 
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-40W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. EXPECT...MORE SHOWERS FROM THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS.      

$$
FORMOSA