000 AXNT20 KNHC 250527 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS. A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS NOTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN 56W-58W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER SURINAME FROM 3N-4N BETWEEN 55W-57W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 4N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 31W EXTENDING TO 1S40W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 12W-20W...FROM EQ-2S BETWEEN 20W-22W...AND FROM EQ-2S BETWEEN 25W-28W. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE COAST OF NE BRAZIL FROM EQ-6S BETWEEN 32W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO HAS 5-10 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 94W-98W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE E GULF E OF 87W AND N OF 25N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF E OF 90W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THIS AREA. SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT... A SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE FROM TEXAS TO LOUISIANA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER N FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1007 MB LOW IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA AND A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN DUE TO A SLIGHTLY STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 84W-87W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER N BELIZE FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 87W-89W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 75W-78W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NW FLOW IS NOTED FROM ABOVE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO ABOVE TRINIDAD. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE AREA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... OVER THE W ATLANTIC...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 74W-77W...WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS PERSISTS N OF 20N BETWEEN 73W-80W. A STATIONARY 1017 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N49W. A TROUGH EXTENDS S ALONG 30N46W 24N50W 20N60W 20N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 36N33W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 70W-80W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N46W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-40W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. EXPECT...MORE SHOWERS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. $$ FORMOSA