000
AXNT20 KNHC 231803
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W S OF 8N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS 
WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BASED 
ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS WITH 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING INVERTED-V SIGNATURE AND WEAK 
CYCLONIC CURVATURE NEAR THE WAVE AXIS IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. 
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ 
NEAR THE SRN EXTENT OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 42W-51W.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 5N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR 
NEAR 34W AND EXTENDING INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S48W. CLUSTERS OF 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-1S BETWEEN 
9W-17W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-4S BETWEEN 
34W-42W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N 
BETWEEN 42W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... 
AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1005 MB LOW IS JUST INLAND OVER S MISSISSIPPI 
NEAR 31N88W MOVING N. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW 
CENTER TO 23N90W. BANDS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
ARE OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND THE 
FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 85W-89W. ELSEWHERE...FAIR 
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF. 10-15 KT 
CYCLONIC WINDS COVER THE N GULF N OF 24N. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. 
TEXAS...THE N GULF...AND FLORIDA HAS ABUNDANT UPPER AIR MOISTURE 
WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE S GULF S OF 26N. EXPECT... 
THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE NW TO N LOUISIANA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
WITH CONVECTION. 
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1009 MB LOW IS OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 7N-10N 
BETWEEN 74W-78W. FURTHER N... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S 
OF W CUBA FROM 19N-20N BETWEEN 76W-78W MOVING E. THIS CONVECTION 
IS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOW 
CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO N OF 16N E 
OF 70W. EXPECT...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SW 
TO NE CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF E 
FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 77W-80W...AND FROM 
21N-24N BETWEEN 70W-76W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS N OF HISPANIOLA 
FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 67W-70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 30N52W 20N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 55W-57W. A 1030 MB HIGH IS 
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N33W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER 
LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 23N75W. ANOTHER UPPER 
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N48W. A 
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM 15N-25N. IN THE 
TROPICS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER W AFRICA NEAR 
10N9W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO 
5N40W. EXPECT...CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER FLORIDA...THE 
BAHAMAS...AND N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

$$
FORMOSA