000 AXNT20 KNHC 221727 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W SOUTH OF 9N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BASED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W TO THE SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BASED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE WAVE AND A 1009 MB LOW E OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER N COLOMBIA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM LIBERIA AT 6N10W TO 3N15W TO EQ22W TO 1S30W TO 1N36W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S45W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-2S BETWEEN 16W-20W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 20W-26W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 40W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A 1005 MB LOW IS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N87W. BANDS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 80W-87W. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NE GULF IS PRODUCING 20-25 KT WINDS N OF 27N E OF 90W. THE W GULF OF MEXICO W OF 90W HAS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH 10-15 KT N WINDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF NEAR 29N88W. THE NE GULF AND FLORIDA HAS ABUNDANT UPPER AIR MOISTURE WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT...THE SURFACE LOW TO DRIFT NW TO THE LOUISIANA COAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION MOSTLY E OF THE CENTER. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1009 MB LOW IS OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 73W-77W. FURTHER NE... SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 68W-73W MOVING E. THE CONVECTION IS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND HAS A GOOD AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALSO OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SHOWERS. SEE ABOVE. EXPECT...CONTINUED CONVECTION FROM THE SW TO NE CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING 20-25 KT WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF E FLORIDA AND THE N BAHAMAS FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 74W-80W DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE GULF OF MEXICO UPPER LEVEL LOW. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 60W-67W. A WEAK 1016 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N57W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 32N12W 27N17W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N57W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N45W. A THIRD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 37N12W. MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM 15N-25N. IN THE TROPICS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER W AFRICA NEAR 10N9W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO 5N40W. EXPECT...CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER FLORIDA...THE BAHAMAS...AND N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. $$ FORMOSA