000 AXNT20 KNHC 220613 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2009 IN ORDER TO CORRECT THE WORDING ABOUT RAIN AND FLOODING IN SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA SECTION TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W TO THE SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BASED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...WHICH IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 8N. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE NOW. ...THE ITCZ... FROM 7N11W NEAR THE BORDER OF SIERRA LEONE AND LIBERIA... TO 3N20W 2N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 35W...GOING INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S42W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 14W AND 22W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 1S TO 1N BETWEEN 48W AND 51W IN EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 32W AND 40W...POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 76W... THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 75W... THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS INTENSIFYING ON TOP OF FLORIDA 24 HOURS AGO HAS EXTENDED ITS COVERAGE SOUTHWARD FROM FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ORDER TO COVER ALL OF FLORIDA SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALL THE WAY TO PANAMA ALONG 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO 30N BETWEEN 80W AND 88W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ALSO COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 75W. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS CREATED DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA...AND TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA AND MOVING INTO THE MONA PASSAGE. A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM... WHICH JUST MEANS A BIG AREA OF NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...HAS FORMED IN THE AREA OF THE DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW...WITH PRECIPITATION FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 67W IN PUERTO RICO AND 74W IN HAITI. PRECIPITATION MUST BE REACHING THE SOUTHERN SHORELINES OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO. HEAVY RAINFALL AND MAJOR FLOODING HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA WITH AT LEAST FOUR DEATHS REPORTED IN HAITI. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE COMPARATIVELY NEWER MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT MOVED JUST TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA ABOUT 24 HOURS EVENTUALLY HAS MADE ITS WAY TO 29N58W. THIS CENTER IS NOT ASSOCIATED WITH ANY DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION AT THIS MOMENT. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT HAS BEEN IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR AT LEAST THE LAST WEEK OR MORE REMAINS NEAR 32N45W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 30N44.5W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 32N BETWEEN 39W AND 47W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N16W NEAR THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO TO THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 24N26W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N14W TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...DISSIPATING FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 24N22W. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS FRONT. $$ MT