000 AXNT20 KNHC 192356 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W S OF 10N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 6N ACROSS INLAND NE BRAZIL...FRENCH GUIANA AND ERN SURINAME THAT COINCIDE WITH HIGHER LEVELS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE MIMIC-TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. WAVE IS ALSO BEGINNING TO MOVE UNDER AN AREA OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE THAT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE GUYANAS AND ERN VENEZUELA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 2N16W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 24W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 9W-18W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM S OF JACKSONVILLE THROUGH TAMPA INTO A 1007 MB LOW NEAR NAPLES. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE ERN FLORIDA STRAITS TO OVER CENTRAL CUBA AND INTO THE WRN CARIBBEAN. DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATES NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF FLORIDA AND MUCH OF THE E GULF NE OF A LINE FROM KEY WEST FLORIDA TO GULFPORT MISSISSIPPI. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING DRIVEN FROM A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N85W WITH A EXPANSIVE AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE NE GULF...FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE W ATLC. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF STRONG NE WINDS TO GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED N OF 28N E OF 85W. A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WRN GULF AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 22N80W TO 17N83W. WHILE MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS NORTH ACROSS FLORIDA...THE NE GULF AND W ATLC...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG AND E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE BOUNDARY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 16N BETWEEN 67W-84W. ALOFT...THIS AREA OF SHOWERS IS BEING AIDED BY THE PRESENCE OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS ERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA AND THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER INLAND COSTA RICA AND PANAMA AS THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ALONG 8N TO A 1006 MB COLOMBIAN LOW NEAR 8N73W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EXTENDS FROM JACKSONVILLE NE TO BEYOND 32N78W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENTLY N OF THE WARM FRONT TO ALONG THE SE CONUS COASTLINE. AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW-LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE W ATLC WATERS W OF 66W. MOST OF THE W ATLC IS UNDER A LARGE DIFFLUENT ZONE E OF AN UPPER LOW SPINNING IN THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N85W WITH THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREAS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 22N71W N OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS NW TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 30N45W 27N44W 24N46W 20N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N51W AND A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N55W THAT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 30N BETWEEN 42W-53W. A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLC NW OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 34N19W AND EXTENDS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO NEAR 5N ACROSS THE E ATLC WITH NELY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT NOTED ALONG THE W AFRICAN COAST AND TROPICAL ATLC WATERS. $$ HUFFMAN