000
AXNT20 KNHC 190606
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W TO THE SOUTH OF 11N MOVING WEST
ABOUT 10 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS 
WAVE AT THE PRESENT TIME. ITS REPRESENTATION IN VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS OF YESTERDAY
SHOWS THAT IT WAS COMPARATIVELY WEAK AND NOT EASY TO DISCERN
IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE LIBERIA COAST NEAR 4N7W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR
ALONG 24W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S47W. ISOLATED AND 
DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 
ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 6N TO THE EAST OF 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS THE CURRENT SOUTH FLORIDA-
TO-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO-TO-SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COLD
FRONT NOW HAS MOVED INTO THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
FROM JUST EAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO WESTERN CUBA. 
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE OPEN GULF WATERS
ON CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER 
HAS FORMED IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CUBA/BAHAMAS-TO-SOUTHWESTERN 
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH THAT SPENT 3 TO 4 DAYS IN 
NEARLY THE SAME LOCATION FINALLY HAS MOVED EASTWARD. THE TROUGH 
NOW EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 14N71W INTO 
NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. THE TROUGH HAS 
BEEN PUSHED EASTWARD BY THE SURGE OF UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY 
WIND THAT NOW THAT IS RELATED TO THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT. 
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN COLOMBIA FROM 7N TO 8N 
BETWEEN 75W AND 76W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH 
OF 16N BETWEEN 70W AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE JAMAICA 
CHANNEL.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE WHOLE SCENARIO OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS IS DEVELOPING
COMPARATIVELY MORE AND MORE EACH DAY. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE HAS 
FORMED IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A 1010 LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS FORECAST TO BECOME A GALE CENTER DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS CURRENTLY IS ON TOP OF THE RAGGED ISLAND RANGE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RANGE FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMA
ISLANDS TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND
ALONG THE ENTIRE FLORIDA EAST COAST. THE SAME DEEP LAYER CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 32N52W.
A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N52W. A STATIONARY 
BOUNDARY IS ALONG 31N45W 22N50W 18N62W. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 18N62W...TO NORTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO...TO THE 
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMA ISLANDS TO THE RAGGED ISLAND RANGE 1010 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 22N TO 
28N BETWEEN 44W AND 50W.

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MT