000
AXNT20 KNHC 161719
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM LIBERIA AT 6N10W TO EQ22W TO NE 
BRAZIL NEAR 5S38W. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE EQUATOR FROM EQ-6S BETWEEN 
24W-32W.  

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SE RETURN FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. 15-20 KT 
WINDS ARE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND ALONG THE COAST OF S 
TEXAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS 10-15 KT WINDS. A SURFACE 
TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF ALONG 87W FROM 20N-27N. ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ARE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND 
S FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY 
SKIES WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY 
OF CAMPECHE HAS HAZE AND SMOKE MOVING NW FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 
89W-95W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER MEXICO AND THE W 
GULF W OF 85W WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. A SMALL 
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER S FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W. 
EXPECT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO MOVE E OVER THE ENTIRE GULF IN 
24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT ON THE SURFACE MORE SHOWERS OVER W 
CUBA...FLORIDA...THE SE GULF...TEXAS...AND THE NW GULF...OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS 
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
W OF JAMAICA FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 78W-82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 15N AND E OF 72W. SIMILAR SHOWERS 
ARE ALONG THE COASTS OF CUBA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. EXPECT...
MORE SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ESPECIALLY FROM THE LEEWARD 
ISLANDS TO CUBA.   

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND THE BAHAMAS W OF 
72W MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS. A 1009 DEEP LAYERED LOW IS 
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N53W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S 
FROM 32N49W 28N50W 22N58W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG 25N52W 
20N56W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE 
FRONT N OF 30N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS 
OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND THE BAHAMAS W OF 70W. THE LARGE UPPER 
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 33N53W. ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E OVER 
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.  

$$
FORMOSA