000
AXNT20 KNHC 151041
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAY 15 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE SOUTHERN LIBERIA COAST NEAR 4N8W TO 2N13W TO 1N26W
TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 31W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 5S44W.
ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 5N TO THE EAST OF 50W.
THE COMPARATIVELY DEEPEST CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING
FROM BRAZIL NEAR 4S TO 1N BETWEEN 40W AND 44W IN CELLS OVER LAND
AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 1N20W 1S24W 4S27W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN 
PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE TO 
UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH APPEARS ALONG 85W/86W TO THE SOUTH 
OF 27N WITH NO KNOWN MOVEMENT YET. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
AND DISSIPATING PRECIPITATION EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC TO 20N100W TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND. A SURFACE TROUGH 
IS ROUGHLY IN THE SAME AREA AS THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA FROM 
7N TO 10N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W...AND ALONG THE PANAMA COAST NEAR 
9N80W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THE ITCZ...AND TO THE 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE BASE OF THE BAHAMAS-TO-JAMAICA-TO-
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THIS TROUGH HAS PERSISTED IN MORE OR LESS THE SAME AREA FOR AT 
LEAST THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO. MOIST UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY 
WIND FLOW IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE 
TROUGH COVERS THE AREA ROUGHLY FROM THE MONA PASSAGE WESTWARD. 
WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATING PRECIPITATION
ARE FROM 16N TO 24N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...FROM THE DOMINICAN 
REPUBLIC TO OFFSHORE OF ANDROS ISLAND BETWEEN 70W AND 80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 35N55W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTER TO 28N58W TO 21N64W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO 28N60W TO 27N65W.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 27N65W TO 30N70W AND 33N75W. 
PRECIPITATION IS DISSIPATING WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 26N54W.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS STILL ARE FROM 30N TO 31N
BETWEEN 50W AND 51W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS 
ALONG THE LINE FROM A CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 33N31W TO 25N35W
TO 14N39W.

$$
MT