000
AXNT20 KNHC 150604
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI MAY 15 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE SOUTHERN LIBERIA COAST NEAR 4N8W TO 2N12W TO 2N23W
TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 432...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 5S44W.
ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 5N TO THE EAST OF 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN 
PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 25N...AND INTO THE 
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS FAR AS 24N87W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALSO COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA TO THE WEST 
OF 87W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH APPEARS ALONG 
86W/87W TO THE SOUTH OF 27N WITH NO KNOWN MOVEMENT YET. STRONG 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WESTERN ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 95W AND 96W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO 
27N BETWEEN 98W AND 101W IN MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ROUGHLY 
IN THE SAME AREA AS THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHERN 
COLOMBIA FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. THIS AREA IS ALONG 
THE ITCZ...AND TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE BASE OF THE 
BAHAMAS-TO-JAMAICA-TO-SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH HAS PERSISTED IN MORE OR LESS 
THE SAME AREA FOR AT LEAST THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO. MOIST UPPER 
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE 
TROUGH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE CYCLONIC 
FLOW AROUND THE TROUGH COVERS THE AREA ROUGHLY FROM THE MONA 
PASSAGE WESTWARD. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 74W AND 80W...FROM 
JAMAICA TO OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN CUBA BETWEEN HAITI AND 80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 34N56W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTER TO 29N57W TO 22N65W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE COLD 
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N55W TO 29N60W TO 28N64W.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 28N64W TO 30N70W AND 34N75W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 26N TO 33N BETWEEN 46W AND
53W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE
FROM A CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 32N32W TO 21N39W TO 14N44W.

$$
MT