000 AXNT20 KNHC 142339 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 3N20W 1N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 32W AND CONTINUING INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE W AFRICAN COAST FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 10W-15W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 3N BETWEEN 41W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION COVERS MOST OF THE GULF WITH ONLY A FEW SCATTERED THIN HIGH CLOUDS ADVECTING ACROSS THE WRN GULF. AN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG THE NE GULF COAST E OF 91W. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXTENDS EWD ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... INCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE FLORIDA GULF COAST. ELSEWHERE...FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE REGION WITH SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATING 10-15 KT E TO SE WINDS OVER THE WRN GULF AND LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE NE GULF DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED ALONG THE NRN GULF. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT ENTERS THE NW GULF EARLY SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 19N74W AND CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 18N BETWEEN 71W-80W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE LOCATED E OF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS ALSO PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 16N BETWEEN 60W-71W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED N OF BRAZIL OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 4N44W AND EXTENDS A UPPER RIDGE NW ACROSS NRN SOUTH AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 10N TO INLAND OVER PANAMA AND PRODUCING A BAND OF CIRRUS CLOUDS THAT EXTENDS FROM 10N80W TO OVER PUERTO RICO. FOR NOW...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE CARIBBEAN IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO FRESH ELY TRADE WINDS WHICH ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. POCKETS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUE ADVECTING FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN AND COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS MAINLY E OF 72W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH NORTHWARD ALONG THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE SE CONUS COASTLINE. ANOTHER AREA OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS LOCATED OFFSHORE N OF 30N BETWEEN 75W-80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NE OF BERMUDA NEAR 36N56W THROUGH 32N58W SW TO 25N64W THEN TO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W. THIS UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N53W EXTENDING SW TO 28N63W WHERE IT CONTINUES STATIONARY ALONG 30N69W TO BEYOND 32N73W. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF DRIER AND STABLE AIR AND THUS IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW ATLC EXTENDING FROM 25N73W ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 17N-25N BETWEEN 70W-78W INCLUDING HISPANIOLA AND ERN CUBA. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC W OF 60W IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER AS A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA EXTENDING FROM A 1028 MB HIGH LOCATED S OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N29W. $$ HUFFMAN