000 AXNT20 KNHC 141053 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A SLOWLY-MOVING WAVE IS ALONG 20W SOUTH OF 13N...DRIFTING WESTWARD. NO ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ABLE TO BE ATTRIBUTED TO THIS WAVE AT THIS TIME. ...THE ITCZ... FROM THE LIBERIA COAST NEAR 7N10W TO 4N19W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 38W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S48W. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 6N TO THE EAST OF 40W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 1S TO 1.5N BETWEEN 43W AND 48W...AT THE BRAZIL COAST. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN MEXICO FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE RANGED FROM NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO TOWARD THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TOWARD GUATEMALA HAVE DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. SOME PRECIPITATION REMAINS MOSTLY FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 24N. BROAD LOW PRESSURE AND A TROUGH PERSIST ALONG THIS LINE OF PRECIPITATION. THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 85W IS MOVING TOWARD THE BASE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT NOW IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE ALONG 89W/90W. IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO SEE ANYTHING IN THE SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY BECAUSE OF HIGHER CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE STILL SHOWED UP IN THE VISIBLE CLOUD FIELD AS LATE AS 13/2100 UTC. THIS FEATURE DOES NOT SHOW UP IN THE LARGER-SCALE PRESSURE FIELD OF THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N80W TO 27N83W TO 23N85W IN THE EASTERN GULF WATERS. PRECIPITATION THAT WAS ALONG THIS LINE SIX HOURS AGO HAS BEEN DECREASING SINCE THEN AND PRETTY MUCH HAS DISSIPATED COMPLETELY BY NOW. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 23N78W BETWEEN THE BAHAMA ISLANDS AND CUBA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 11N82W. A SEPARATE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS PANAMA FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND COLOMBIA TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N71W 16N74W CUTTING ACROSS HAITI. ISOLATED MODERATE AND DISORGANIZED SHOWERS ARE IN A LARGER AREA FROM 15N TO 23N BETWEEN 69W AND 76W. THE PRECIPITATION NOW APPEARS TO BE LIGHTER IN CONCENTRATION THAN IT WAS SIX HOURS AGO. THE AREAS RANGE FROM 180 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO JUST TO THE EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND GREAT INAGUA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N63W TO 27N64W. THIS TROUGH IS MOVING TOWARD THE AREA OF THE ALREADY-EXISTING COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 28N66W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 28N66W TO 30N75W...AND INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE FROM A CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 26N34W TO 14N46W. $$ MT