000
AXNT20 KNHC 140603
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A QUASI-STATIONARY WAVE IS ALONG 19W SOUTH OF 13N...NOT MOVING
ACCORDING TO THE LAST TWO SURFACE MAP ANALYSES FROM THIS OFFICE.
NO ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ABLE TO BE
ATTRIBUTED TO THIS WAVE AT THIS TIME.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE LIBERIA COAST NEAR 6N10W TO 5N16W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 
25W...TO 1S37W INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 4S45W. ISOLATED AND 
DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 5N TO THE EAST 
OF 41W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
ARE FROM 0.5S TO 1.5N BETWEEN 42W AND 48W...AT THE BRAZIL COAST.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN MEXICO FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE 
SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FROM 
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...
THROUGH CENTRAL MEXICO ALONG A SOUTHEAST-TO-NORTHWEST LINE
TO 25N103W. BROAD LOW PRESSURE AND A TROUGH PERSIST ALONG
THIS LINE OF PRECIPITATION. THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 85W IS MOVING TOWARD THE BASE
OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT NOW IS IN THE 
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH MAY BE ALONG 89W/90W. IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO SEE ANYTHING
IN THE SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY BECAUSE OF HIGHER CLOUDS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE STILL SHOWED UP IN THE
VISIBLE CLOUD FIELD AS LATE AS 13/2100 UTC. THIS FEATURE DOES 
NOT SHOW UP IN THE LARGER-SCALE PRESSURE FIELD OF THE SURFACE 
OBSERVATIONS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N80W TO 26N84W IN
THE EASTERN GULF WATERS. PRECIPITATION THAT WAS ALONG THIS LINE
SIX HOURS AGO HAS BEEN DECREASING SINCE THEN AND PRETTY MUCH HAS
DISSIPATED COMPLETELY BY NOW. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 23.5N 76.5W IN THE BAHAMA ISLANDS...
ACROSS CUBA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 
13N80W. A SEPARATE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW 
IS MOVING ACROSS PANAMA FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND 
COLOMBIA TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE 
TROUGH IS ALONG 23N71W 16N75W CUTTING ACROSS HAITI. THREE AREAS
OF PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE LARGER AREA FROM 16N TO 25N BETWEEN 
65W AND 75W. ONE IS CENTERED WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 16.5N69W
TO THE SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A SECOND AREA IS WITHIN
A 30 NM RADIUS OF 22N69.5W JUST TO THE EAST OF THE TURKS AND 
CAICOS ISLANDS. A THIRD AREA IS BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND
GREAT INAGUA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N60W TO 30N62W.
THIS TROUGH IS MOVING TOWARD THE AREA OF THE ALREADY-EXISTING
COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO 30N60W TO 29N66W...
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 29N66W TO 30N73W...AND INTO 
SOUTHERN GEORGIA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 
THE LINE FROM A POSSIBLY-DEVELOPING CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 26N33W 
TO 15N48W.

$$
MT