000
AXNT20 KNHC 100518
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W 1N30W CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR NEAR 36W EXTENDING TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W 
AFRICA FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 6W-2E. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 
1N-5N BETWEEN 12W-16W...AND FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 16W-23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER 
S TEXAS AND N MEXICO FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 100W-103W. SIMILAR 
CONVECTION IS FURTHER S OVER INLAND MEXICO FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 
101W-104W. AS OF 0300 UTC...A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF 
OF MEXICO NEAR 28N84W. FAIR WEATHER AND 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC 
WINDS ARE NOTED AROUND THE HIGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF 
CONTINUES TO HAVE 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND FAIR 
WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE 
GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 85W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE 
GULF CONTRIBUTING TO THE FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT...CONTINUED FAIR 
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SE FLOW OVER THE GULF FOR THE NEXT 
24 HOURS AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE N GULF STATES. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADES CONTINUE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST 
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER PANAMA WITHIN 30 NM 
RADIUS OF 8N82W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER EL SALVADOR 
...HONDURAS...AND GUATEMALA FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 86W-90W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER S MEXICO FROM 15N-18N 
BETWEEN 91W-94W. RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS 
...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA N OF 17N AND E OF 74W. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRODUCING SW-W FLOW OVER 
THE CARIBBEAN. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE SUBSIDENCE IS 
NOTED. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.   

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LARGE 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N48W. A 
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS W TO N FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 
PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 
57W-70W. A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF SAHARAN DUST HAS ALSO SPREAD 
TO ABOUT 55W...ACCORDING TO THE CIMSS SAL PRODUCT. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N69W. 
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FURTHER E BETWEEN 20W-60W. IN THE 
TROPICS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 6N42W WITH A 
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W TO 8N60W. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 


$$
FORMOSA