000 AXNT20 KNHC 081805 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI MAY 08 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9N 2N20W 1N20W...THEN CROSSES THE EQUATOR NEAR 34W AND CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE AXIS WITHIN 45 NM OF 4N29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WITH ASSOCIATED DRY STABLE AIR IN NW FLOW IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE GULF AS BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING W OF THE AREA SPREADS EWD MAINTAIN TRANQUIL CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF INTO THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 28N. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE GULF WITH JUST A FEW SMALL CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF THE WRN SECTION...AND OVER THE ERN SECTION N OF 25N MOVING RAPIDLY N IN SLY FLOW OF 15-20 KT. A FEW THIN STRANDS OF HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE FAR NRN PORTION OF THE NE GULF...WHILE A SMOKE PLUME DUE TO INLAND FIRES OVER SE MEXICO AND THE WRN YUCATAN PENINSULA STREAMS NW ACROSS THE SW GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 26N AND W OF ABOUT 88W. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO 5-6 SM WITH THE PLUME ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 36-48 HRS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SE BAHAMAS SW TO ERN CUBA AND JUST E OF JAMAICA. THE COMBINATION OF THIS TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE NE PART OF THE SEA MAINLY S OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ACTIVITY IS MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE INTERIOR OF THESE ISLANDS. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA... A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES NE TO SW ACROSS THE NW PORTION...WHILE THE NRN PERIPHERY OF BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PRESENT OVER THE ERN PORTION TO THE E OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS IS COMBINING TO ACCOUNT FOR SW MID/UPPER LEVEL OVER THE AREA BRINGING IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS... FROM CONVECTION OVER COLOMBIA...NEWD INTO ACROSS THE FAR SRN WATERS. CONFLUENT FLOW INTO THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING MODERATE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE SEA KEEPING CONDITIONS THERE RATHER STABLE WITH ONLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN SMALL CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS NOTED MOVING WNW TO THE S OF 20N. LOW CLOUD THIN STREAMERS ARE EVIDENT OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWERS. THESE CLOUDS EMANATE WWD INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 13N. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DESCRIBED UNDER CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDS NE TO BEYOND THE AREA AT 32N72W. TO ITS E...A NARROWING MID/UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NE OF THE AREA SW THROUGH 32N64W TO 27N66W TO 20N66W. A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS E OF THE RIDGE FROM 32N59W TO 25N59W WITH A RIDGE TO ITS E ALONG 32N52W TO 25N52W. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL E OF THE RIDGE...THEN RESPONDS TO A BROAD DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE FAR ERN ATLC STRETCHING FROM 32N28W SW TO 24N38W AND S TO 15N35W. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NE OF THE TROUGH WITHIN 45 NM OF 26N73W. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A TINY VORT MAX SPUN OFF FROM THE TROUGH IS RACING N NEAR 29N75W. A 1030 MB HIGH CENTER IS JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 32N47W WITH A RIDGE WSW TO 29N72W TO ACROSS NRN FL. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AN ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION ARE MOVING WWD IN MODERATE TO STRONG ESE FLOW S OF THE RIDGE AND E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO NEAR 52W. SOME SIGNS OF AFRICAN DUST/HAZE ARE NOTED OVER THE ERN ATLC S OF 25N E OF 56W...OTHERWISE THE ENVIRONMENT THERE REMAINS VERY SUPPRESSED WITH JUST THE TYPICAL SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD FIELD PRESENT N OF THE ITCZ. $$ AGUIRRE 000 AXNT20 KNHC 081805 RRA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI MAY 08 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9N 2N20W 1N20W...THEN CROSSES THE EQUATOR NEAR 34W AND CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE AXIS WITHIN 45 NM OF 4N29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WITH ASSOCIATED DRY STABLE AIR IN NW FLOW IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE GULF AS BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING W OF THE AREA SPREADS EWD MAINTAIN TRANQUIL CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF INTO THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 28N. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE GULF WITH JUST A FEW SMALL CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF THE WRN SECTION...AND OVER THE ERN SECTION N OF 25N MOVING RAPIDLY N IN SLY FLOW OF 15-20 KT. A FEW THIN STRANDS OF HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE FAR NRN PORTION OF THE NE GULF...WHILE A SMOKE PLUME DUE TO INLAND FIRES OVER SE MEXICO AND THE WRN YUCATAN PENINSULA STREAMS NW ACROSS THE SW GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 26N AND W OF ABOUT 88W. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO 5-6 SM WITH THE PLUME ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 36-48 HRS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SE BAHAMAS SW TO ERN CUBA AND JUST E OF JAMAICA. THE COMBINATION OF THIS TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE NE PART OF THE SEA MAINLY S OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ACTIVITY IS MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE INTERIOR OF THESE ISLANDS. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA... A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES NE TO SW ACROSS THE NW PORTION...WHILE THE NRN PERIPHERY OF BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PRESENT OVER THE ERN PORTION TO THE E OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS IS COMBINING TO ACCOUNT FOR SW MID/UPPER LEVEL OVER THE AREA BRINGING IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS... FROM CONVECTION OVER COLOMBIA...NEWD INTO ACROSS THE FAR SRN WATERS. CONFLUENT FLOW INTO THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING MODERATE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE SEA KEEPING CONDITIONS THERE RATHER STABLE WITH ONLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN SMALL CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS NOTED MOVING WNW TO THE S OF 20N. LOW CLOUD THIN STREAMERS ARE EVIDENT OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWERS. THESE CLOUDS EMANATE WWD INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 13N. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DESCRIBED UNDER CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDS NE TO BEYOND THE AREA AT 32N72W. TO ITS E...A NARROWING MID/UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NE OF THE AREA SW THROUGH 32N64W TO 27N66W TO 20N66W. A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS E OF THE RIDGE FROM 32N59W TO 25N59W WITH A RIDGE TO ITS E ALONG 32N52W TO 25N52W. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL E OF THE RIDGE...THEN RESPONDS TO A BROAD DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE FAR ERN ATLC STRETCHING FROM 32N28W SW TO 24N38W AND S TO 15N35W. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NE OF THE TROUGH WITHIN 45 NM OF 26N73W. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A TINY VORT MAX SPUN OFF FROM THE TROUGH IS RACING N NEAR 29N75W. A 1030 MB HIGH CENTER IS JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 32N47W WITH A RIDGE WSW TO 29N72W TO ACROSS NRN FL. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AN ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION ARE MOVING WWD IN MODERATE TO STRONG ESE FLOW S OF THE RIDGE AND E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO NEAR 52W. SOME SIGNS OF AFRICAN DUST/HAZE ARE NOTED OVER THE ERN ATLC S OF 25N E OF 56W...OTHERWISE THE ENVIRONMENT THERE REMAINS VERY SUPPRESSED WITH JUST THE TYPICAL SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD FIELD PRESENT N OF THE ITCZ. $$ AGUIRRE