000 AXNT20 KNHC 051046 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE MAY 05 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 5N9W 2N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 33W AND CONTINUING JUST SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR TO 47W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AXIS ALONG 42W S OF 4N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH S OF 2N. ELSEWHERE...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF 7N BETWEEN 11W-22W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 5N BETWEEN 22W-31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING COVERS THE ERN U.S. AND NRN FLORIDA WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY INLAND ACROSS SRN MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA EXTENDING WWD ACROSS SRN TEXAS. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IS FOUND S OF THE FRONT AS LIGHT SE SURFACE FLOW IS EVIDENT FROM SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE GULF. THESE WINDS ARE LOCATED ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE WRN GULF WATERS. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH ONLY DEBRIS MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE W/CENTRAL GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE W CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER COSTA RICA WHICH IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA W OF 76W. THIS MOISTURE IS RESULTANT DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SRN MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN FROM N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS S ALONG 64W TO NEAR THE NE VENEZUELA COAST. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN AND LESSER ANTILLES E OF THE AXIS MAINLY N OF 12N. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN PRIMARILY DUE TO A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS MOVING WWD IN CONVERGENT SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN S OF 16N. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE ATLANTIC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A PAIR OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ANCHORED NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. ONE RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM 36N53W ACROSS BERMUDA TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ONE WEAKNESS IN THE SURFACE RIDGE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE W ATLC AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N69W IS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 22N74W IN THE SE BAHAMAS TO 30N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED MAINLY E OF THE TROUGH WITHIN 150 NM OF A LINE FROM 22N64W NE TO 31N71W. THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED UNDER A LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ZONE ACROSS THE W ATLC DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN NWD INTO THE UPPER LOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS EXTEND FARTHER SE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND TROPICAL ATLC FROM 13N-21N BETWEEN 55W-66W. THE SECOND RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE E ATLC FROM A SURFACE HIGH ANCHORED NE OF THE AZORES. THE WEAKNESS IN THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AS A SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS NEAR 30N40W PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 19N42W TO 32N38W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS FROM 27N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 31W-41W. $$ HUFFMAN