000
AXNT20 KNHC 042353
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAY 04 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 5N9W 2N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 34W 
AND CONTINUING TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. THE ITCZ IS ACTIVE TODAY 
ACROSS THE BASIN. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF 
THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 10W-13W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 
17W-20W...FROM 1N-1S BETWEEN 20W-23W...FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 
28W-31W...AND FROM 1S-3S BETWEEN 35W-38W.    

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE COAST FROM 30N-31N BETWEEN 86W-87W. ELSEWHERE... 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER NE MEXICO FROM 
20N-27N BETWEEN 98W-102W. THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO HAVE 
SE RETURN FLOW...HOWEVER...THE SURFACE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED AND 
THE WIND SPEEDS ARE MOSTLY 10 KT. OUTSIDE OF THE NE GULF OF 
MEXICO...FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WEATHER PREVAILS WITH WARM 
TEMPERATURES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. 
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUD ARE OVER THE NE GULF 
N OF 27N AND E OF 86W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER 
OF THE GULF. EXPECT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO BE IN PLACE OVER 
THE GULF IN 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT ON THE SURFACE...CONTINUED 
FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SE FLOW.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADES CONTINUE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST 
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 
PANAMA TO BELIZE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 
67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MAINLY E OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE 
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.  MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
OVER HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 
80W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN.  
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 
70W. EXPECT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DOT THE S CARIBBEAN 
AND CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 15N OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC WITH AXIS FROM BERMUDA TO 
N FLORIDA. VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE S BAHAMAS MOVING 
W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE BAHAMAS ALONG 31N69W 27N71W 
23N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS 
N OF 27N. ANOTHER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 
32N44W TO 25N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 
35W-40W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W 
ATLANTIC NEAR 26N70W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E 
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N38W.  IN THE TROPICS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS 
CENTERED OVER GUYANA NEAR 6N59W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER W 
AFRICA AND THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC S OF 20N AND E OF 35W. EXPECT 
...THE SURFACE TROUGH E OF THE BAHAMAS TO DRIFT W OVER THE OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS. 

$$
FORMOSA