000
AXNT20 KNHC 032358
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN MAY 03 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM W AFRICA NEAR 5N6W TO 2N10W TO THE 
EQUATOR AT 34W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST OF 
AFRICA FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 5W-8W...AND FROM 2N-2S E OF 4W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 
2N-5S BETWEEN 30W-40W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A THIN SQUALL LINE INLAND OVER W 
GEORGIA...SE ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS 
ARE WITHIN 15 NM OF THE SQUALL LINE. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND OVER S MISSISSIPPI AND S LOUISIANA 
FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 89W-93W. THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO 
HAVE 10-15 KT SE-S RETURN FLOW. STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER THE W 
GULF. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES PREVAIL OVER THE 
GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE 
GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 92W. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH 
CLOUD ARE OVER THE N GULF STATES AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER S FLORIDA...THE SE GULF AND THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA ENHANCING THE FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT...THE UPPER 
LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME ZONAL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT 
...A COLD FRONT TO MOVE FROM E TEXAS TO S GEORGIA OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS WHILE THE GULF EXPERIENCES CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER WITH 
SE FLOW.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADES CONTINUE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST 
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER W VENEZUELA...AND N COLOMBIA 
FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 66W-76W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO GUATEMALA. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND 
JAMAICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND A BAND OF 
BROKEN HIGH CLOUD ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN S OF 18N. EXPECT... 
SHOWERS TO DOT THE S CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 13N OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC WITH AXIS BERMUDA TO N 
FLORIDA. VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE S BAHAMAS MOVING W. 
A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 27N65W 
20N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE TROUGH 
AXIS. ANOTHER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N38W TO 
23N38W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 
27N72W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC BETWEEN 
55W-65W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 
30N38W.  UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE 
ATLANTIC FROM 10N-30N. EXPECT...THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE 
LEEWARD ISLANDS TO DRIFT W OVER THE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH 
SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE OTHER TROUGH TO DISSIPATE.   

$$
FORMOSA